Diesel hits record high of $6.51 per gallon; top Republican leaders collectively pressure the administration to ban exports—chance of implementation stands at just 35% amid intra-party divisions

Pressure is mounting rapidly within the Republican Party. As U.S. diesel prices surge to an all-time high, Republican lawmakers from agricultural states have publicly urged the Trump administration to ban diesel exports to alleviate soaring fuel costs borne by farmers and truck drivers. On Monday, the national average retail diesel price climbed to a record $6.51 per gallon—up more than 70% since before the outbreak of the Iran war in February. Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa directly called on Trump to suspend diesel exports via the social media platform X, writing in all capital letters: “HIGH DIESEL PRICES ARE KILLING FARM INCOME.” Several Iowa House members echoed the call the same day, demanding that the White House “stop the bleeding” through measures including an export ban, suspension of fuel taxes, and financial assistance to affected businesses. The White House has explicitly rejected this proposal. A White House official stated, “The administration is not currently considering an export ban or export restrictions,” citing Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s position: while an export ban would be worth considering *if* it demonstrably lowered prices, “that is not the case.” Energy consultancy Rapidan Energy estimates the probability of the White House implementing an export ban has now reached 35%. Legislative action begins to take shape At the congressional level, calls for an export ban have escalated from individual statements to concrete legislative proposals. Representative Tim Burchett of Tennessee introduced two bills: one would immediately ban diesel exports through January 2027; the other would establish a price-trigger mechanism—automatically imposing an export ban whenever the national average diesel price exceeds $5.00 per gallon, lifting it only after prices fall below $4.50 for a sustained period. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said last week he remains open to “exploring” an export ban, adding: “If we have sufficient domestic supply yet are still exporting, that could be one avenue toward solving the problem.” Representative Ashley Hinson urged deploying “every available option,” including suspending diesel exports and establishing a diesel relief program.

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Since July 30, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has relaxed gasoline specifications at least three times—the most recent being on September 8. These actions carry heightened urgency. The national average retail diesel price has reached $6.53 per gallon—the highest ever recorded—and only forty days remain before the November 3 midterm elections. On September 22, at the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, Trump stated he had directed his team to study halting diesel exports; the next day, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told *The Wall Street Journal* the administration was considering only *limited* restrictions—not a full ban—to “avoid wielding a heavy-handed government policy hammer.” In the House of Representatives, Republicans hold a narrow majority of 218 seats to Democrats’ 214. Where are these prices coming from? The Iran war erupted on February 28. One week earlier, the national average retail gasoline price stood at $2.94 per gallon and diesel at $3.81. According to weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), by the week ending September 21, gasoline had risen to $4.48 and diesel to $6.53. Diesel has now surpassed its previous record of $5.81 set in June 2022; gasoline remains about 50 cents short of its 2022 peak of $5.01. According to CNBC’s September 23 report citing shipping data firm Kpler, crude oil transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 6.98 million barrels per day for the week ending September 20—less than 40% of the pre-war level of 18.3 million barrels. Diesel prices have surged even more sharply than gasoline due to another external factor: Russia, following strikes on its refineries by Ukraine, has banned diesel exports—removing the world’s second-largest diesel supplier from the global market. This is a supply shock originating entirely from abroad. What the EPA did first The administration’s initial response was to increase the availability of fuel. On July 30, the EPA authorized nationwide production of gasoline blends containing 9–15% ethanol. On August 20, it temporarily raised the national ethanol blending limit for gasoline from 10% to 15%, while waiving volatility standards. On September 8, it suspended federal enforcement of special gasoline specifications for Texas, Arizona, and California. These measures are justified by EIA data. When supply is being stripped away by Strait-of-Hormuz disruptions and Russian export bans, increasing the amount of usable fuel obtainable from each barrel of crude—and enabling freer movement of fuel across state lines—are among the few policy tools that avoid creating new shortages elsewhere. They require no fiscal expenditure and do not distort market flows. Mike Sommers, President of the American Petroleum Institute, put it plainly: “The answer is more supply and greater flexibility—not new restrictions.” What the White House is weighing Discussions around export restrictions have a basis in reality. EIA data shows that since August, U.S. distillate fuel (of which diesel is the primary component) exports have averaged approximately 1.65 million barrels per day—up from roughly 1.34 million barrels per day a year earlier. For the week ending September 18, end-of-period inventories stood at 107.4 million barrels, compared with an average of about 118.3 million barrels during August and September of last year. In mid-September, Representative Tim Burchett (R-TN) introduced two bills, including H.R. 10422—which would trigger export controls only when the national average diesel price reaches $5.00 per gallon, automatically lifting them once prices fall below $4.50 and remain there for 30 consecutive days.

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