Diesel hits record high of $6.51 per gallon; top Republican leaders collectively pressure the administration to ban exports—likelihood of implementation stands at just 35% amid intra-party divisions.

Pressure within the Republican Party is intensifying sharply. As U.S. diesel prices surge to an all-time high, Republican lawmakers from agricultural states have publicly urged the Trump administration to ban diesel exports to alleviate soaring fuel costs borne by farmers and truck drivers. On Monday, the national average retail diesel price climbed to a record $6.51 per gallon—up more than 70% since before the outbreak of the Iran war in February this year. Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa directly urged Trump on social media platform X to suspend diesel exports, writing in all capital letters: HIGH DIESEL PRICES ARE CRUSHING FARM INCOME. Several Iowa House members echoed his call the same day, demanding that the White House “stop the bleeding” through measures including an export ban, suspension of fuel taxes, and financial aid for affected businesses. The White House has explicitly rejected this proposal. A White House official stated, “The administration is not currently considering an export ban or export restrictions,” citing Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s position: while an export ban would be worth considering *if* it actually lowered domestic prices, “that is not the case.” Energy consultancy Rapidan Energy estimates the probability of the White House implementing such a ban has now reached 35%. Legislative action begins to take shape At the congressional level, calls for an export ban have escalated from individual statements to concrete legislative proposals. U.S. Representative Tim Burchett of Tennessee introduced two bills: one would immediately ban diesel exports through January 2027; the other would establish a price-trigger mechanism—automatically imposing an export ban whenever the national average diesel price exceeds $5.00 per gallon, lasting until the price falls below $4.50. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said last week he remains open to “exploring” an export ban, adding: If we have sufficient domestic supply yet are still exporting, that could be one pathway to solving the problem. Representative Ashley Hinson called for deploying “every available option,” including suspending diesel exports and establishing a diesel relief program.

Reports indicate the Trump administration is considering a 90-day diesel export ban—but the White House later denied it, and the U.S. Energy Secretary publicly opposed the idea.

The Trump administration is evaluating a diesel export ban to lower fuel prices, but internal policy disagreements have become public. Energy Secretary Chris Wright explicitly stated the ban would not work—and could even raise gasoline and jet fuel prices—directly contradicting Trump’s stance. According to a Wednesday report by Politico, citing five informed sources, the Trump administration is preparing a 90-day diesel export ban aimed at curbing persistently high energy prices ahead of the November midterm elections—amid mounting political pressure on Republicans. In response to the Politico report, U.S. diesel futures plunged sharply, at one point falling over 7%. Meanwhile, European diesel futures surged. But Reuters subsequently quoted a White House official posting on X, stating that Politico’s report about the administration preparing a 90-day diesel export ban was inaccurate. U.S. diesel futures rebounded somewhat but failed to fully recover the losses triggered by the Politico report. Nonetheless, the administration’s public internal rift has cast significant uncertainty over the policy’s trajectory. Energy Secretary Chris Wright bluntly declared at *The Economist*’s New York event that banning diesel exports “would certainly not work,” warning it would force refineries to cut production—thereby driving up gasoline and aviation fuel prices. The Department of Energy later issued a statement asserting Wright “is fully aligned with the President and together they are exploring every viable option to reduce energy prices,” attempting to downplay the disagreement. Soaring diesel prices and mounting midterm election pressure U.S. diesel prices are at historic highs. According to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average diesel price stood at $6.52 per gallon on Wednesday—up 76% year-on-year. This surge stems from the U.S.-Iran conflict and the ongoing war in Ukraine, tightening global diesel supply. Skyrocketing fuel costs have drawn widespread complaints from farmers and other diesel users—and have evolved into a core political challenge for the Republican Party. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has raised the issue of high diesel prices directly with the President, while Republican lawmakers representing highly competitive districts have also ramped up pressure, demanding government action.

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