"We have no way back!" The Middle East shockwave spreads, and Trump's rural electoral base is collapsing.

The U.S. war against Iran has now lasted nearly seven months, and its economic shockwaves are sweeping across America’s agricultural heartland with unprecedented intensity. Soaring diesel prices, tariffs driving up input costs, and paralyzed export markets—this triple pressure is pushing the farmer community—once Trump’s most solid voting bloc—to the brink of collapse. This week, the national average diesel price hit $6.49 per gallon, surging approximately 75% year-on-year, according to AAA data; North Carolina set a new state record on Thursday at $6.19 per gallon. North Carolina farmer Matt Bell told CBS News that his $35,000 fuel budget for 2026 was exhausted by August—and his actual annual expenditure is now projected to reach $50,000–$60,000. "Every piece of equipment runs on diesel," he said, "We have no way back." This group’s anger is translating into political signals. Several interviewed farmers stated they had voted for Trump multiple times but are now reconsidering where to cast their ballots. Farmer John Boyd Jr. told CNN that over 400 farm foreclosures are currently pending nationwide—"This is a farmers’ bankruptcy crisis." As midterm elections approach, Republican enthusiasm in rural areas is visibly waning. The diesel crisis: From budget overruns to hourly price quotes The closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered by the Iran war—compounded by continued Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and the Russia-Ukraine conflict’s suppression of refining capacity—has collectively tightened global fuel supply dramatically. According to AAA, the national average diesel price stands between $6.40 and $6.49 per gallon—nearly doubling year-on-year; in parts of California, prices have approached $10 per gallon. Price volatility has rendered normal business planning virtually impossible. Matt Bell said his diesel supplier issues quotes valid only for the morning—revised upward by afternoon—"We simply cannot lock in costs." His combine harvester consumes roughly $600 worth of diesel daily, while John Boyd Jr.’s combine requires 140 gallons per fill-up, costing nearly $1,000. "You can’t operate without fuel; you can’t operate without fertilizer—these are non-negotiable," Bell said. He has been forced to postpone equipment upgrades, produce some fertilizer in-house, and launch side businesses—including pumpkin-picking tours and hayride excursions—to supplement farm income—yet remains unable to break even. Ranchers’ plight: A war that “ambushed” them—and vanished protections Texas rancher Lynn Fleming told Sky News her August fuel expenses were nearly double those of the same period last year. Her husband Robert Fleming said the war caught them completely off guard: "We had absolutely no idea he’d pull this move in the Strait of Hormuz. He didn’t tell us… We received zero warning about what was coming."

Wall Street Insights Morning Briefing FM-Radio | September 23, 2026

Overseas Trump’s UN Speech: Post-election U.S. may strike deal with Iran; oil prices could plunge; AI policy to be “encouragement-only, no restrictions.” Trump declared he would never allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, affirmed major decisions regarding Iran are imminent—weighing either a negotiated agreement or “destruction”—and urged other nations to economically isolate Iran. Should the Iran conflict end, oil prices could even fall below pre-conflict levels. He noted U.S. munitions stockpiles far exceed projected usage. On AI, he opposed international agreements to regulate it, arguing that every major new technology brings great challenges—but the U.S. will not slow AI development, nor stifle a technology potentially “greater than the Industrial Revolution.” Government documents will rename “artificial intelligence” as “superintelligence.” Trump signals support for banning diesel exports—refining stocks under pressure. Trump revealed he has internally advocated for a diesel export ban and said a decision on implementation will come “very soon.” Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed the administration is evaluating the feasibility of a full or partial ban. This policy signal directly weighed on the refining sector: Jefferies downgraded Valero Energy and Marathon Oil from “buy” to “hold” the same day; the S&P 1500 Refining & Marketing Index fell for the second consecutive day. Trump has long championed “American energy dominance” as a core policy pillar—so his current pivot toward assessing export restrictions is widely viewed by markets as a direct reflection of mounting pre-election pressure. Trump: U.S. officials met with an Iranian delegation on Tuesday—talks lasted three hours. The talks went smoothly, and another meeting has already been scheduled. — Iran says the meeting was “at the U.S. request”; its foreign minister and a U.S. special envoy met in New York. "We have no way back!" The Middle East shockwave spreads, and Trump's rural electoral base is collapsing. The U.S. war against Iran has now lasted nearly seven months; soaring diesel prices, tariffs inflating agricultural input costs, and export disruptions—this triple pressure is squeezing American farmers’ survival space. The national average diesel price has risen to $6.49 per gallon, and many farms’ fuel expenditures are drastically exceeding budgeted amounts. This cost crisis is also transforming into political discontent, with some traditionally Republican rural voters showing signs of wavering. Saudi Aramco informally notifies Asian refiners: Crude loading at Yanbu port to resume shortly. Media reports indicate that at least three Asian fuel-processing firms have received informal assurances from senior Saudi Aramco executives that loading will soon restart—though no specific timeline was provided. Sources say Saudi authorities aim to restore pipeline throughput to roughly half capacity within days and achieve full operational capacity within about six weeks. Signs of restart for the Saudi East-West Pipeline; Yanbu port expected to resume crude exports as early as this week. Signals point to a restart of the Saudi East-West Pipeline; Saudi Aramco is accelerating repairs to damaged pumping stations, and tankers have already begun arriving at Yanbu port—with the goal of resuming crude exports as early as this week. Pipeline restart could ease supply disruption pressures, yet uncertainties remain regarding restoration progress and Red Sea shipping security; geopolitical supply risks have not fully dissipated. Iran plans heavy penalties for unauthorized vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz: 20% of cargo value as fine; refusal to pay triggers temporary seizure. According to Iranian media reports on Tuesday, Iran’s Parliament National Security Committee has approved new legal provisions governing the Strait of Hormuz. Under these provisions, vessels violating transit regulations must pay a fine equal to 20% of their cargo’s value—and face temporary detention until the fine is paid. Iran will establish a dedicated judicial branch to enforce the rules, and the Iranian Armed Forces will report on enforcement status every three months.

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