What are the revised oil price forecasts from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley for the final quarter of this year, and what is the key reason cited for the downward adjustment?

Goldman Sachs revised its Brent crude forecast for the final quarter of this year to $80 per barrel, down from $90, while Morgan Stanley lowered its Dated Brent forecast for the same period to $80 per barrel, down from $100. Both banks attribute this downward revision to the interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has spurred optimism about a sooner-than-expected resumption of Persian Gulf crude exports—Goldman expects full recovery by the end of July, and Morgan Stanley assumes 80% of lost production will be restored by December.

According to Morgan Stanley, what is the timeline for restoration of Iranian oil production and exports following the interim US–Iran deal, and what logistical constraints are highlighted?

Morgan Stanley projects that 50% of lost oil production will return by September, 80% by December, with the remainder coming online in early 2027. The bank emphasizes that restoring tanker flows will take 'several weeks' due to mine clearance, rebuilding commercial confidence among shipowners and insurers, and the return of relocated vessels; it further stresses that the pace at which *empty* tankers re-enter the Gulf—needed to fill export tanks—is more critical than the departure of laden tankers.

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Wall Street Banks Cut Oil Forecasts on Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

Jun 15, 2026

Major Wall Street banks lowered oil price forecasts following an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley predict Brent crude could average $80-$90 per barrel as exports normalize by late 2026.

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