According to Morgan Stanley, what is the projected level of U.S. gasoline inventories by the end of August, and how does it compare historically?

Morgan Stanley projects U.S. gasoline inventories will fall to around 198 million barrels by the end of August — a level below the trough reached during the 2022 energy shock and the lowest for this time of year in modern data.

What are the main supply-side factors driving the decline in U.S. gasoline inventories, as identified by Morgan Stanley?

The decline is driven by a collapse in imports — hitting an all-time weekly low in the week to April 10, with May arrivals from Europe expected to stay well below the typical 3–4 million barrels — alongside refinery behavior favoring diesel and jet fuel production over gasoline due to stronger distillate margins, and elevated exports, particularly to Latin America (especially Mexico) and parts of Europe.

Morgan Stanley Sees US Gasoline Inventories Falling to Historic Lows

May 5, 2026

Morgan Stanley forecasts U.S. gasoline inventories will drop to around 198 million barrels by August due to low imports and refinery yield shifts. Geopolitical tensions may further drive margins higher.

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Morgan Stanley Sees US Gasoline Inventories Falling to Historic Lows

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