What are Morgan Stanley's revised Brent crude price forecasts for Q3 and Q4 2026, and how do they compare to previous estimates?

Morgan Stanley lowered its Brent crude price forecast for Q3 2026 to $75 per barrel from $90, and for Q4 2026 to $75 per barrel from $80. It now projects Brent at $75/bbl in the first half of 2027 and $70/bbl in the second half, down from a prior forecast of $80.

What key supply development prompted Morgan Stanley’s downward revision, and what surplus does it now project for 2027?

The bank cited a faster-than-expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting ramp-up in Middle East exports—reversing a prior supply shortfall—as the key driver. It now projects an implied global oil market surplus of 4.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2027, up from an earlier 2–3 million bpd surplus forecast for 2026 before the conflict, which had temporarily flipped into a deficit due to the Hormuz closure.

Morgan Stanley Cuts Brent Price View as Hormuz Flows Recover, Flags 2027 Surplus

Jun 30, 2026

Morgan Stanley lowered its Brent crude price forecast to $75 per barrel for late 2026, citing faster Strait of Hormuz recovery and projecting a 4.8 million barrels per day global surplus in 2027.

reuters

2026-05-05

Morgan Stanley Sees US Gasoline Inventories Falling to Historic Lows

2026-06-08

Morgan Stanley Sees LNG Upside Risks as Asian Demand Picks Up

2026-06-30

Morgan Stanley Cuts Brent Price View as Hormuz Flows Recover, Flags 2027 Surplus

Morgan Stanley Cuts Brent Price View as Hormuz Flows Recover, Flags 2027 Surplus

FAQ