What price level does Morgan Stanley forecast for the Asian LNG benchmark in Q3 and Q4, and how does that compare to recent history?

Morgan Stanley forecasts the Asian LNG benchmark price will rise to $25 per million British thermal units in the third and fourth quarters — a level last seen in early 2023 — representing an upside of more than 30% to the forward curve.

Why does Morgan Stanley expect LNG prices to rise despite a potential near-term resolution to the Middle East conflict?

Morgan Stanley expects LNG prices to rise because consumption is increasing in key Asian markets like India and China, the window to rebuild inventories before winter is shrinking, and forecasts indicate hotter weather in Asia for June and July — all of which are driving demand recovery, even if the Middle East conflict resolves and restores supply through the Strait of Hormuz.

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Morgan Stanley forecasts LNG prices to surge over 30% to $25/MMBtu in Q3-Q4, driven by Asian heatwaves, European restocking, and Middle East supply disruptions. Shrinking inventory windows and recovering consumption are expected to sustain upward pressure on costs.

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Morgan Stanley Sees LNG Upside Risks as Asian Demand Picks Up

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