Goldman Sachs: Hormuz throughput has recovered to two-thirds of pre-war levels, with 5 million barrels per day of 'dark ship' traffic

Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are recovering—but what markets see is merely the tip of the iceberg. On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs strategists Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and her team informed clients that Gulf oil exports have rebounded to 15–16 million barrels per day (bpd), roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels. Yet visible shipping data shows only about 10 million bpd—leaving a 5-million-bpd gap that the team terms a 'surge in dark shipping': tankers deliberately disabling their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) to evade Iranian tracking and interdiction. Brent crude has risen to $95 per barrel, reflecting the market’s pricing-in of a prolonged 'no-deal Middle East' scenario as the new baseline. Meanwhile, multiple Trump administration officials issued optimistic statements this week about restored oil flows through the Strait—yet Goldman’s data reveals a reality far more complex than official narratives suggest. Officials proclaim 'Hormuz is back'—but data discrepancies raise serious questions. Senior Trump administration officials made coordinated statements this week on oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC on Monday that over 17 million bpd had passed through this critical waterway—the highest level since the start of the six-month conflict. Trump then declared on Truth Social: 'Hormuz oil is back!' Vice President Vance added: 'Last night, 15 million barrels came out of the Strait—because of U.S. action.' However, visible shipping data—calculated as a seven-day moving average—shows flows of only ~10 million bpd, revealing a substantial gap between official claims and observable reality.

The International Energy Agency's sixth coordinated release of emergency oil stocks strongly intervenes in the global oil market

Beyond joint action and unified stock releases, many IEA member countries—tailoring measures to their domestic realities and specific petroleum market conditions—implemented targeted interventions in their national oil markets during March 2026, vividly demonstrating the wide array of policy tools governments can deploy to manage oil markets during crises. (I) Actions taken by the United States On March 12, 2026, media reports indicated the Trump administration was considering a temporary waiver of the century-old Jones Act to ensure energy and agricultural products could move freely among U.S. ports. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt stated the move aimed to counter supply disruptions triggered by the Iran crisis. Under the Jones Act, cargo transported between U.S. ports must be carried on vessels built in the U.S., flying the U.S. flag, and owned by U.S. companies—a rule that severely limits the number of tankers available for domestic transport. Waiving the law would allow foreign-flagged vessels to carry fuel between U.S. ports, helping alleviate supply disruptions and potentially lowering energy prices. Levitt said in a statement: 'In the interest of national defense, the White House is considering a temporary waiver of the Jones Act to ensure critical energy products and agricultural essentials flow freely to U.S. ports.' On March 13, 2026, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright directed Sable Offshore to resume operations at the Santa Ynez oil field and its associated Santa Ynez pipeline system, responding to supply disruption risks arising from California state policies. The field produces approximately 50,000 barrels per day—substituting nearly 1.5 million barrels of imported oil monthly. On March 16, Sable Offshore announced the pipeline had been reactivated. During the week of March 13, 2026, the international oil futures market saw several unusually large, unattributed trades. Market participants speculated the U.S. Treasury Department may have quietly entered the crude futures market as a seller to suppress global oil prices; the Treasury had evaluated multiple options to lower oil prices—including direct intervention in futures markets. Additionally, on March 10, 2026, Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on social media claiming the U.S. Navy had escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz—a message that caused oil prices to plunge sharply—before being deleted minutes later. The White House denied any such naval escort occurred. Market observers questioned whether Wright’s post was 'a simple error—or something more deliberate and consequential?' To ease supply constraints stemming from the Strait of Hormuz…

Oil Pipeline Bypassing Hormuz to Reopen 'Soon,' US Energy Secretary Says

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US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced the Saudi East-West oil pipeline, targeted by drone attacks, will resume operations soon. This critical alternative to the Strait of Hormuz handles 7 million barrels daily.

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