The U.S. releases its final batch of strategic petroleum reserves—up to 40 million barrels—and urges Europe to follow suit.

Soaring fuel prices are placing pressure on the Trump administration, with less than two months remaining before the midterm elections; Washington has once again deployed its strategic reserve card. The U.S. Department of Energy announced it will release up to 40 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This marks the final batch in a coordinated international effort led by the International Energy Agency (IEA), under which the U.S. has released a cumulative total of 172 million barrels since the outbreak of the Iran war. Meanwhile, Energy Secretary Chris Wright publicly criticized certain European countries, stating their actual releases fell far short of pledged amounts, and urged all member states to fulfill their commitments. The immediate impetus for this release is the sharp rise in energy prices—gasoline remains above $4 per gallon, while diesel has breached a record high of $6 per gallon. The November midterm elections will determine control of the House of Representatives; persistently high fuel costs are exerting increasingly significant political pressure on the Trump administration. On Tuesday, WTI crude futures fell by 3.95%. Europe’s weak compliance triggers open U.S. pressure In his statement, Chris Wright adopted unusually strong language, directly naming European allies for lagging behind the U.S. and Japan in this coordinated release effort. He said: "Several European member countries have actually released only a small fraction of the crude oil and petroleum products they pledged; we urge every member country to honor its commitments." This coordinated release is IEA-led and involves participating member countries including the U.S. and Japan. The U.S.’s public pressure reflects internal strains within the alliance coordination mechanism amid tightening supply conditions.

Brent crude rebounds above $100 per barrel; U.S. and European government bond yields continue rising; the U.S. pressures France and Germany to release 120 million barrels of diesel reserves—how should we interpret the current market situation?

1. Prices will certainly remain between $90 and $100—but won’t go higher, as the capabilities of the ‘soothsayer,’ the ‘frog,’ and the ‘sandals’ are inherently limited. 2. In this market environment, everyone is focused solely on safeguarding their own interests; no one is thinking about the broader picture or voluntarily releasing reserves. 3. U.S.–European relations are highly likely to fracture during the Trump administration’s term—and the Russia precedent has already fully demonstrated that NATO is essentially obsolete. Consequently, Europe’s rightward political shift could very well occur by year-end or early next year.

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