The U.S. and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire; Iran’s foreign minister stated that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened if attacks cease—what impact would this have on the global energy market?

The U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict is a major geopolitical event profoundly affecting the global macroeconomic landscape. To assess the economic implications of the ceasefire and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, let us first review what has transpired over the past month. First, the energy and chemical industry supply chain has suffered the largest supply shock in history. In terms of output, prior to the outbreak of hostilities, the Middle East produced approximately 28 million barrels of crude oil and 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas per day. Following the outbreak of war, these figures dropped by one-third and one-sixth respectively—representing an absolute reduction in output exceeding that of any previous historical episode, including the 1970s “oil crisis.” In terms of logistics, the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most critical energy trade corridor (unequaled by any other)—carries 20% of global crude oil and 25% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade. Over the past month, it has endured the most severe functional blockade in history, with shipping capacity declining by over 90%. In terms of pricing, prices for energy and chemical products—including crude oil, LNG, methanol, and ethylene—have surged by 50% or more compared to pre-conflict levels, with near-month futures contracts and Asian-session prices rising especially sharply. Second, the specter of “stagflation” is gradually spreading. Beyond energy and chemical products, the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has triggered supply contractions and price hikes across multiple sectors—including agriculture, manufacturing, and logistics. Both international investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and domestic securities firms such as China International Capital Corporation (CICC) agree that rising oil prices will significantly fuel inflation while simultaneously dampening economic growth. Assuming $70 per barrel represents the pre-war equilibrium price level, every 10% increase in oil prices would raise global inflation by approximately 0.2% and reduce global GDP growth by 0.1%. Countries like the United States—with relatively high energy consumption shares—would likely experience even more pronounced economic impacts from oil price hikes. Should international oil prices remain above $80 per barrel through the end of 2026, U.S. inflation could rebound to above 3%, presenting a textbook case of “stagflation.” Third, the financial environment has markedly deteriorated. The U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has disrupted the previously prevailing policy narrative—characterized by falling inflation, rising productivity, and easing liquidity.

Oil prices, gas prices, and freight rates are all surging—global energy markets have entered a new phase of heightened tension.

Document No.: A624/0673 Publication Date: September 14, 2026 Oil Prices, Gas Prices, and Freight Rates All Surge—Global Energy Markets Enter a New Phase of Heightened Tension The third phase of the U.S.-Iran war has driven international oil prices above $100 per barrel once again, pushed LNG prices to their highest levels since 2022, and sent VLCC freight rates to record highs—triggering another round of comprehensive tightening across global energy markets. Wang Nengquan Spurred by the reignition of U.S.-Iran hostilities on August 30, the large-scale missile and drone attack launched by Yemen’s Houthi forces against southern Saudi oil facilities on September 8, the Houthi capture of the strategically vital Red Sea port city of Mocha and the Hanish Islands on September 10—directly threatening navigation through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea—and the closure of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Crude Oil Pipeline on September 11 following drone strikes originating from Iraq, international oil prices surged past $100 per barrel again on September 9. LNG prices also climbed to their highest levels since 2022, while international oil tanker freight rates hit unprecedented highs. Drawing upon data and analyses from industry media outlets and experts, this article outlines the latest developments in global energy markets since early September. Brent and WTI Crude Prices Both Surpass $100 per Barrel Again The U.S.-Israel-Iran war erupted on February 28, 2026. On March 12, Brent crude futures closed at $100.46 per barrel—the third time in history that international oil prices had breached and sustained above the $100-per-barrel threshold. Thereafter, oil prices fluctuated in tandem with evolving developments in the conflict. Following the escalation into the war’s third phase on August 30, international oil prices rose sharply: Brent and WTI futures prices crossed the $100-per-barrel mark for the sixth and fourth times this year, respectively, on September 9 and 10. Industry experts Tsvetana Paraskova and Irina Slav published articles on the “Oil Price” website on September 9, 10, and 14, 2026, detailing the latest trends in international oil prices. (I) Brent Crude Prices Breach $100 per Barrel for the First Time in Two Months On Wednesday, September 9, during the early Asian trading session, oil prices briefly surpassed $100 per barrel amid persistent Middle Eastern crises, which eroded hopes for successful U.S.-Iran negotiations and for a swift restoration of normal oil supplies. By early European trading on Wednesday, the international benchmark Brent crude price rose 2.25% to $100.12 per barrel—the highest level since July 24, when the initial escalation of Middle Eastern tensions drove prices upward. U.S. benchmark WTI crude also rebounded, gaining 1.80% to $94.67 per barrel—approaching the $95-per-barrel threshold. The immediate catalyst for this week’s price surge was the renewed outbreak of hostilities between the U.S. and Iran. The U.S. military sank Iranian oil tankers, while Iran and its Yemeni ally, the Houthi movement, launched attacks on regional energy infrastructure—including targets in Saudi Arabia—on Tuesday. On the evening of Tuesday, September 8, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that U.S. forces had sunk five Iranian crude oil transport vessels, reiterating that the action constituted a response to ballistic missile attacks by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) against U.S. naval vessels.

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