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Since the beginning of this year, the acrylonitrile market has continued to decline, and the price has dropped from 12,000 yuan (ton price, the same below) to 6,300-6,700 yuan, a 10-year low
.
"The demand has not been activated for a long time, and the new device is about to be put into operation.
It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will still have room to fall in the short term
.
Load reduction to save the market is ineffective
Load reduction to save the market is ineffectiveFaced with the constantly falling market, manufacturers have taken measures such as reducing load or shutting down for maintenance, but with little effect
.
Judging from the operation status of the plant, Jilin Petrochemical's 452,000-ton/year plant is scheduled for round-robin inspection; Qilu plant was shut down due to environmental problems, and the restart time is to be determined; Anqing's 130,000-ton/year plant load has dropped to 60-70%, and 80,000-ton/year plant Maintain 90% of the load; Fushun 90,000 tons/year unit has unstable production due to catalyst problems; Shanghai Secco 520,000 tons/year unit load is about 90%; Keluer 130,000 tons/year unit starts on April 1.
One-month maintenance; 90% of the 520,000-ton/year installation load of Sierbang; 70% to 80% of the 130,000-ton/year installation load of Shandong Haili
.
"Although the news of the overhaul and load reduction of production enterprises has been reported, the acrylonitrile market has not improved at all.
It has fallen below 7,000 yuan from 10,000 yuan, which has seriously damaged the confidence of the industry
.
Foreign markets are also not optimistic
.
Jia Xiaojing said that under the internal and external difficulties, it is expected that the price of acrylonitrile still has room to fall
.
It is difficult to strengthen the cost side
It is difficult to strengthen the cost sideThe support from acrylonitrile raw material propylene is also not satisfactory
.
Wang Chunming, general manager of Shandong Ruiyang Chemical Trading Co.
, Ltd.
, introduced that, in general, the domestic production capacity of propylene will increase by 400,000 tons this year, and the total production capacity will increase to 40.
14 million tons.
It is expected that the domestic propylene market will be difficult to strengthen
.
From the perspective of the propylene market, after the end of March, with the shutdown of Hualian Petrochemical and Jingbo Petrochemical plants for maintenance, the supply side in the field tightened slightly
.
In addition, the downstream PO and PP powder enterprises have increased the start-up load, and the demand in the field has gradually increased, and the trading atmosphere of the propylene market has increased accordingly
.
The inventory of propylene production enterprises is not under pressure, and the price attitude is gradually rising, and the market trading continues to rise
.
However, as the price of raw material propylene rises, the profits of downstream products are compressed, and the costs of PP powder, propylene oxide, n-butanol and octanol have been inverted to varying degrees, and the market trading atmosphere has gradually weakened
.
Regarding the propylene market outlook, industry insiders said that the Wanfeng gas separation plant is still in the commissioning stage, and the Tianjin Bohua plant is expected to recover in early April
.
Overall, the supply of propylene in the later stage will increase
.
On the downstream side, affected by the weak terminal demand and the cancellation or delayed delivery of some overseas orders, the consumption of downstream and terminal products of propylene is slow, the inventory of raw materials is difficult to digest, the enthusiasm for entering the market is limited, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the propylene market is gradually emerging.
The risk of falling below 5,500 yuan is difficult to bring cost support to the acrylonitrile market
.
Inability to support the demand side
Inability to support the demand sideWeak downstream demand is the main reason for the decline in the acrylonitrile market
.
The demand for acrylic fiber has been greatly reduced, which has hit the acrylonitrile market hard
.
"Affected by the spread of foreign epidemics, the loss of export orders from enterprises, coupled with the sluggish domestic market, downstream acrylic fiber enterprises have reduced production in a large area.
At present, the industry's operating load is about 40%.
If Qilu Petrochemical's acrylic fiber plant stops, it will only start around 30%, basically It is stagnant
," said Qi Hongfei, an analyst at Zhongyu Information
.
The demand for acrylonitrile, another major downstream ABS, also shrank, the operating rate declined slightly, and the ex-factory price of ABS continued to decrease
.
In addition, under the spread of the global epidemic, based on concerns about export orders, low-priced offers continued to appear on the market
.
Merchant shipments are under pressure, and more real orders are profitable.
The focus of the ABS market has fallen again, and the prices of some low-end materials have fallen to the lowest level in nearly 12 years
.
"From the perspective of the market outlook, the demand of ABS downstream factories is still light.
In addition, the inventory of acrylonitrile manufacturers is high, and the trend of raw material propylene is weak, which makes the pessimism in the market even more serious
.
Traders have little confidence in the market outlook, and they are more active in making profits
.
It is expected that ABS will be shipped in the short term.
The market continues to decline, and it is difficult to form a strong support for the acrylonitrile market
.
" Qi Hongfei said
.
