Affected by the bearish fundamentals, the Shanghai aluminum shock is weak

On the macro front, U.
S.
home prices continued to fall, and housing investment forecasts were revised
down in the fourth quarter.
The US existing home sales index in November was 73.
9, close to the April 2020 level, and the S&P/CS 20 major city house price index in October fell 0.
78% month-on-month, and the decline has been going on for four months
.
The domestic manufacturing PMI index in December was 47.
0%, which continued to fall by 1.
0 percentage points from November and hit the lowest value since March 2020.

Fundamentals, Guizhou power rationing and production reduction and then upgrade is expected to increase the affected production capacity by 200,000 tons on the original basis, but the resumption of production in other regions Sichuan and Guangxi continues, and the electrolytic aluminum production capacity this week has decreased compared with last week, but the extent is not large
.
The operating rate of leading enterprises in the downstream processing of aluminum at the consumer end continued to fall by 0.
5 percentage points from last week to 63.
4%, and some enterprises considered stopping the furnace early for holidays due to lack of orders and insufficient employees, and it is expected that the short-term aluminum downstream processing start is difficult to rise
.
Aluminum ingot social inventory began continuous accumulation as scheduled this week, and the subsequent accumulation will continue with the continued weak consumption
.

Overall, there are small disturbances on the supply side but the impact is very limited, consumption is weak and is expected to continue to weaken, accumulation continues, fundamentals are bearish, and aluminum price shocks are weak
.