After a slight short-term rebound in rubber, there is still a divergence between bulls and bears

Recently, the rainfall in the main producing countries of Thailand and Vietnam has decreased, the rubber tapping season is expected to increase the supply of raw materials, the glue is stable after the decline, and the expectation of returning to work is strengthened, focusing on the recovery of domestic economic activities in the later period or is expected to bring about a stable rebound
of far month contracts.

Futures price difference: On 12.
28, RU main closed at 12815 yuan / ton (+15), NR main closed at 9705 yuan / ton (+30).

RU basis -515 yuan/ton (+35), NR basis 15 yuan/ton (+23).

RU non-standard price difference of 2165 yuan / ton (+40), tobacco chip import profit + 189 yuan / ton (+190).

Spot market: 12.
28, full latex quotation 12300 yuan / ton (+50), mixed rubber quotation 10650 yuan / ton (-25), 3L spot quotation 11600 yuan / ton (0), STR20# quotation 1395 US dollars / ton (+5), butylbenzene quotation 10600 yuan / ton (0).

Thai raw materials: raw film no quotation, cup glue 39.
05 baht/kg (-0.
15), glue 43.
30 baht/kg (0), tobacco sheet 47.
09 baht/kg (+0.
05).

Domestic raw materials: Yunnan glue 10800 yuan / ton (0), Hainan glue 11350 yuan / ton (0).

As of 12.
23: Exchange Total Inventory 180613 (+5791), Exchange Warehouse Receipt 162120 (+3100).

As of 12.
22, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 49.
75% (-6.
76%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 58.
35% (-6.
48%)
.

Viewpoint: On the supply side, the rainfall in the main producing countries of Thailand and Vietnam has decreased, the supply of raw materials is expected to increase during the rubber tapping season, the price of glue remains stable after the decline, and the import profit of tobacco chips is stronger; China basically ushered in a complete stoppage, and the price of raw materials in Hainan remained stable; On the demand side, the month-on-month decline in the downstream tire operating rate last week has expanded, and it is expected that the tire operating union will recover as the return of personnel to work continues to arrive; In terms of inventory, inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to accumulate slightly, 01 contract approaching delivery month, delivery profit preference stimulated RU registered warehouse receipts to increase
.
Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, there is still a divergence between long and short after a slight rebound in futures prices, considering the return to work, the domestic economy is expected to pick up, and the rubber is strong and volatile
.