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Since the week after the holiday, futures prices have continued to maintain a relatively stable trend
.
Short-term rubber prices maintain a strong shock pattern, focusing on the later resumption of work, if demand is less than expected, accumulation acceleration, rubber prices are still under pressure
.
On the news, Li Zhongmin, deputy general manager of the National Coal Trading Center, believes that the current market volatility
should be viewed rationally.
At present, the average number of available days of coal storage in domestic power plants has reached 23 days, which is significantly higher than the average of
previous years.
On February 10, the People's Bank of China released financial statistics and social financing data for January 2022, showing that the growth of credit cooperatives in January achieved a "good start"
.
RMB loans increased by 3.
98 trillion yuan in the month, a monthly statistical high, an increase of 394.
4 billion yuan year-on-year; the increase in social financing reached 6.
17 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations, 984.
2 billion yuan more than the same period last year, also hitting a monthly record high
.
On the supply side, it has entered a stage of seasonal production reduction
.
The production and sales balance is expected to continue to narrow
in February.
Since Q4 2021, the "La Niña" phenomenon has limited disturbance to rubber tapping activities, and major producing areas such as China and Thailand have successively stopped cutting, and seasonal production cuts will lead to support
from the raw material price side.
On the demand side, it will gradually return to the right track
from the irregular stage of holidays.
The data for the Q4 quarter of 2022 shows that the added value of the automotive industry rebounded year-on-year, and the demand for passenger cars and commercial vehicles released marginal improvement, but the hub remained stable, tire production continued to benefit from strong export demand, and domestic demand needed greater stimulus
.
In terms of the market, spot prices have also been boosted recently, and the price of full latex in Yunnan is 14200 yuan / ton, which is already a relatively high price
in recent years.
In terms of inventory, Qingdao warehouse destocking was temporarily suspended, and the growth of delivery warehouse accelerated
.
In December, imports to Hong Kong fell month-on-month, but Qingdao's inventory volume stabilized due to the slowdown in withdrawal; In 2021, the production of glue in domestic production areas will increase significantly, the price difference between concentrated milk and whole milk is reasonable, resulting in the flow of raw materials mainly to whole milk, domestic production has grown steadily, the price difference between concentrated milk and whole milk is low, the flow of raw materials is mainly whole milk, and the delivery warehouse receipt continues to increase rapidly; At present, the non-standard price difference is 1300 yuan / ton, which is neutral
.
From the plate point of view, Shanghai rubber has been in the stage of 14,000-16,000 yuan / ton wide fluctuation, the range is limited, the rhythm of the rise and fall is more affected by the macro sentiment disturbance, unilateral market or difficult to appear, more to the pullback low level and more allocation, extend the upper and lower range boundary flexible operation
.
