Agency: Oil prices continue to fall

The United States continues to release strategic oil reserves, and oil prices continue to fall
.
As of the close, NYMEX crude oil futures 11 contracts fell $2.
64 / barrel or 3.
08% to 82.
82; ICE Cloth Oil Futures 12 contracts fell $1.
59/b or 1.
73%
at 90.
03.
China's INE crude oil futures main contract 2212 rose 1.
1 yuan to 671.
9 yuan / barrel, and fell 13.
1 yuan / barrel to 658.
8 yuan / barrel
in overnight trading.

At present, the main logic that dominates oil prices is still the economic downturn expectation in the context of the Fed's interest rate hike VS the risk premium caused by the lack of spare capacity under OPEC+ control and the Russia-Ukraine conflict
.

The current market's concerns about the demand side overshadow the lack of supply, from the news, first, the US CPI rose 8.
2% year-on-year in September, higher than the market expectation of 8.
1%, reducing inflation is still the Fed's primary goal, the Fed Kashkari speech again showed "hawkish", CME raised the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points in November to 94.
8%, and the economic growth expectations in the future market are difficult to be optimistic, which will continue to suppress crude oil prices
。 Second, according to people familiar with the media, the Biden administration will announce the release of another 10 million to 15 million barrels of oil from the national emergency reserve in recent days to balance the market and prevent gasoline prices from climbing
further.
Third, data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that crude oil inventories fell by 1.
268 million barrels, gasoline inventories by 2.
168 million barrels, and refined oil inventories by 1.
093 million barrels
in the week ended October 14.
On the whole, before the Fed's aggressive interest rate hike is over, the long-term downward trend of crude oil remains unchanged, but due to the insufficient global marginal supply under the control of OPEC, there will be a sharp rebound in oil prices with the outbreak of risk events, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the time being under the current situation
.