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Yesterday's aluminum prices were strongly volatile, and the latest data showed that social inventories declined, mainly because some areas were affected by the epidemic
.
On the supply side, there are many overseas energy disturbance factors, and it is difficult for aluminum smelters that have reduced production to resume normal production in the short term; Domestically, bauxite is affected by the epidemic in the north, the overall supply exceeds demand, and the market transaction is relatively limited; In terms of electrolytic aluminum, Inner Mongolia has new production capacity put into operation, Sichuan resumed production slower than planned, and Yunnan's production reduction has not been expanded for the time being, but Yunnan's part of the recovery time is longer, and the supply side is slowly repairing
.
On the demand side, last week's downstream starts have returned to the level before the long holiday, industrial profiles and automobile-related orders have increased, photovoltaic infrastructure performance is eye-catching, October is still in the peak season consumption segment, policy aspects to reduce the down payment interest rate and other favorable real estate, but the recent epidemic is frequent, some areas of aluminum processing enterprises start or insufficient, "gold nine silver ten" has passed most of the time, peak season performance is lower than in the past, long-term demand is doubtful
.
In terms of inventory, both at home and abroad are at a low level, as the aluminum ingots in transit continue to arrive, the domestic stage of accumulation, LME inventory has increased sharply, it is rumored that commodity giant Glencore has supplied a large number of Russian aluminum to the LME warehouse, although there are different statements about the large increase in LME inventory, but the medium and long-term global demand expectations under the aggressive interest rate hike of many overseas countries are pessimistic, and domestic and foreign aluminum prices are under pressure
.
On the whole, there are many supply-side disturbances at home and abroad, but the current US dollar liquidity impact and the expected strengthening of global terminal demand are still the market's concerns, and short-term recommendations are mainly
wait-and-see.
