Aluminum prices are weak and the market is temporarily treated with a wait-and-see approach

In terms of news, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's primary aluminum production in January-February fell 1.
4% year-on-year to 6.
33 million tons
.
Recently, the epidemic situation in various parts of China has intensified, and the transportation of the industry chain has been affected to a certain extent, and there is no great impact
on production at present.
Under the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Rusal's exports and transportation may be blocked, coupled with European energy prices continue to rise, European electrolytic aluminum production reduction concerns continue to heat up
.

In terms of domestic fundamentals, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other places have begun to resume production, and the process of resumption of production is uneven
.
The aluminum market shows a state of external strength and internal weakness, and the import window continues to close
.
In terms of consumption, downstream consumption just needs to recover seasonally, but the current outbreak of the epidemic in various places may suppress
demand.

In terms of inventory, social library data shows that inventory has dematerialized, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow-up destocking efforts
.
On March 14, domestic aluminum ingot stocks were 1.
121 million tons, 21,000 tons
more than Monday.
On March 15, LME aluminum stocks fell by 10,650 tons from the previous session to 742,000 tons
.

In terms of price, the threat of the energy crisis to overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity may continue, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the progress of domestic electrolytic aluminum production and the recovery of downstream demand, but the recent development of the epidemic may interfere with transportation and procurement, and it is recommended to treat it unilaterally with a wait-and-see approach
.