Aluminum prices are weak and volatile in the short term

According to customs data, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy in May 2022 was 114,500 tons, an increase of 31.
4% year-on-year and 8.
0%
month-on-month.
From January to May 2022, the cumulative import volume was 54.
95 tons, an increase of 39.
1%
year-on-year.
In May 2022, the export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 20,400 tons, an increase of 76.
2% year-on-year and a decrease of 19.
6%
month-on-month.
From January to May, the cumulative export was 83,700 tons, an increase of 13.
5%
year-on-year.

Overseas, affected by high energy prices, Century Aluminum announced that it will temporarily idle its smelter in Horsville, Kentucky; In terms of domestic supply, the supply side has continued to resume production and the planned release of new production capacity since June, mainly concentrated in Yunnan, Gansu, Guangxi and other places
.
In terms of consumption, although a series of encouraging policies have been released one after another, the overall real estate data is relatively sluggish, and the performance of aluminum profile orders is weak; Shanghai car companies have fully resumed work and production, and the automotive sector is expected to be good; The performance of the new energy field continues to be impressive
.

The cost side is difficult to see a sharp decline due to the high price of gas, and it is expected that Shanghai aluminum will run weakly and fluctuately, with the operating range of Shanghai aluminum prices in the range of 19500-22000 yuan / ton, and the operating range of London aluminum prices of 2500-2900 US dollars / ton
.

In terms of price, the phased rebound of aluminum prices needs to see the stimulus of the policy and the recovery of spot liquidity, under the pessimistic expectation of steady growth on the supply side and poor terminal demand such as real estate, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term
.