Aluminum prices continue to be strong outside and weak inside Lun aluminum soared to a new high

On the supply side, Jinluyu environmental protection control and the epidemic situation in Guangxi gradually faded, the domestic alumina production scale in February reached more than 15 million tons, Geely Bai Mine electrolytic aluminum still has 420,000 tons of production capacity to be repaired, and other resumption of production rhythm is relatively good
.
Yunnan hydropower supply is abundant, under the new policy Yunnan allows 1.
2 million tons of production scale, at present, Yunnan Hongtai, Shenhuo, Yun Aluminum by 70, 22 and 180,000 tons of quota respectively, will be put into operation at the end of February, mid-March will be released one after another, Yunnan Energy Bureau to promote green aluminum new production capacity of more than 600,000 tons, it is expected that the province's green aluminum projects can reach 4.
3 million tons
by the end of March.
Overseas crude oil and natural gas prices soared again during the week, energy costs and production reduction pressure continued, and the total scale of European aluminum plant production cuts rose to 850,000 tons
.

On the demand side, the peak season is approaching, and the average operating rate of downstream leading processing enterprises continues to rise by 1.
7% to 69.
8%.

The operating rate of aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises remained stable at 84% and 85.
6% highs; Benefiting from abundant orders for automobiles and photovoltaics, the operating rate of aluminum profile companies increased by 2.
5% to 71.
5% weekly; Aluminum cable starts remained at 54.
6%; In the first week after the holiday, recycled aluminum enterprises were subject to the late resumption of work and equipment maintenance, and the operating rate rose sharply by 5% to 69.
8%
on the dual lines of aluminum prices and costs.

Inventory cover, exchange inventory, LME inventory overall destocking during the week 29,000 tons to 794,200 tons; the pace of Shanghai aluminum accumulation has slowed down, the accumulation of 09,300 tons to 345,200 tons
in the week.
In terms of social inventory, the trend of alumina inventory is relatively flat, accumulating 31,000 tons to 311,000 tons in the week, and the current inventory is at a historical low; the aluminum ingot social library has entered the accelerated accumulation rhythm, with an overall accumulation of 21,000 tons to 1.
12 million tons; aluminum rods took the lead in entering the accelerated destocking rhythm during the week, and the destocking inflection point was advanced, and the overall destocking was 17,000 tons to 268,000 tons
.

Recently the domestic supply-side interference factors have decreased, and the peak season cycle is expected to arrive earlier
.
Russia's mutual sanctions with Europe and the United States have entered a long-term logic, overseas energy prices are rising, and the trend of aluminum prices being strong outside and weak inside will continue
.
It is recommended that investors be bullish on short-term positions, focusing on the progress of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the trend of domestic aluminum ingot inventories, and the results of demand confirmation or falsification
.