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After the recent surge of nearly 1,000 yuan, the risk under the high price of aluminum has also surged, superimposed on the determination of the government and relevant departments to regulate and control commodity prices, continue to chase the rise need to be cautious, short-term Shanghai aluminum or high fall risk again, medium and long-term bullish thinking maintained, the main force can pay attention to the 20500-21500 range shock
.
In terms of stocks, inventories returned to decline this week, with weekly destocking of 0.
5 to 749,000 tons, with Gongyi region mainly contributing
.
At the consumption level, Henan's power rationing has been completely lifted, and the aluminum operating rate continues to improve, but consumption in other regions and sectors is still at the off-season level, especially in terms of profile orders
.
At the supply level, Xinjiang Changji has reduced production capacity in the next few months due to total production restrictions, while the power shortage in southwest China still restricts the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and it is difficult to resume production or new investment expectations
in the short term.
Stories on the supply side emerge one after another, and there is currently no expectation of resumption of production due to power rationing and dual-control production capacity during the year, only Henan's unexpected production capacity reduction is on the way to resume production, but the magnitude is limited, and the short-term and expected performance at the supply level are tight
.
On the cost side, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document last Friday to adjust the ladder electricity price of the electrolytic aluminum industry, which will significantly increase the cost of enterprises and form a strong support
for the price.
This week, the government and the association again mentioned the rapid rise in bulk prices, the long position in the middle of the week, the short-term price increase sentiment slowed down, but from the fundamentals, the gap between supply and demand is still there, and the long order can continue to hold
.
Recently, the association intends to suppress the excessive rise in aluminum prices, but the current basic face of price promotion is strong, and the capital is still relatively strong, coupled with the domestic social inventory again reduced, maintained at a low level of 750,000 tons to further support the price, short-term aluminum prices continue to fluctuate at a high level, above the focus on the 22,000 pressure level, chasing higher still need to be cautious, vigilant against the relevant departments to re-issue regulatory measures to curb the rise in commodity prices, the operation can be bought on demand in the event of a pullback
.
