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Yesterday's aluminum price shock sorting
.
Domestic Shanghai aluminum this round of rebound is mainly affected by the macro level, in the early stage under macro pressure aluminum prices successively down low, and after the market sentiment improved, aluminum prices low opened a super fall rebound, short exit, after two consecutive days of rebound, the fundamentals did not have strong upward support, Shanghai aluminum trend into the shock finishing stage, the main contract shock downward, closed down 0.
69%.
Overseas, the European energy crisis is still relatively serious, Nord Stream 1 began maintenance, the ventilation may be reduced after the later restart, the European natural gas crisis still exists, and energy prices remain high, which has an impact
on both overseas supply and demand.
On the supply side, there is still room for growth in Yunnan, Guangxi, Gansu and other regions, supply pressure is still there, and in some areas due to insufficient power in high temperature weather, there may be subsequent load reduction production
.
In terms of consumption, with the decline in aluminum prices, the enthusiasm for downstream receiving goods has improved slightly
.
However, due to the off-season and high temperature weather, terminal demand continued to be cold, and domestic aluminum downstream starts remained low
.
In terms of inventory, due to the recent low price of aluminum, downstream procurement sentiment has improved, and social inventory has maintained decomposition
.
Entering the seasonal consumption off-season, domestic demand is expected to remain weak
.
Recently, inventory dematerialization is again due to the impact of low prices, the downstream speculative pulse replenishment and loss of post-shipment reduction, consumption place arrival decrease, but in the case of weak demand, it is expected that the pace of destocking will slow down
again in the later period.
Overall, for the current trend, it was supported in the short term due to the low replenishment of spot stocks and the intermittent repair of macro sentiment, but after the rise in aluminum prices, the spot discount expanded again, and the willingness to replenish downstream declined
.
The recent technical rally in aluminum prices tends to see limited
upside.
In the second half of the year, it is still a surplus and accumulation pattern, the trend of aluminum prices to stop falling and reverse, we need to see the loss of aluminum plants forced to reduce production
.
