Aluminum prices rebounded and whether they can stop falling still needs time to observe

Market situation: At present, about 62% of the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity loss cash cost (weighted cash cost of about 11700 yuan / ton), since mid-March, electrolytic aluminum plants have chosen to actively reduce production, At present, it involves reducing the annual production capacity of about 655,000 tons, according to estimates, the second quarter of the domestic electrolytic aluminum production reduction will be 1.
5 million tons, but overall, the first half of the year production reduction is expected to have a limited impact on the supply and demand relationship of electrolytic aluminum, demand side, from mid-March, aluminum processing export new orders significantly weakened, the spread of overseas epidemic has begun to negatively feedback to the aluminum processing sector, enterprise finished product inventory pressure increased, although the recent domestic building materials related aluminum processing orders slightly warmed month-on-month, but packaging and other related orders did not show signs of improvement, aluminum social inventory accumulation or continuation
。

Inventory: the last warehouse receipt was 299296 tons, an increase of about 3% over last week, and the same period in the past 10 years was high; Aluminum inventories in the previous period of this week decreased by 6,242 tons from last week to 521,830 tons
.
The total inventory of aluminum ingots in 7 cities in China was 1.
676 million tons, an increase of about 1% over last week, and the growth rate remained stable last week; The social inventory of aluminum rods was about 185,500 tons, down about 10% from last week, down for four consecutive weeks, but still at a high level
in the same period of three years.
LME inventories were 1207925 tonnes, up about 7% from last week and at a nearly 10-year
low.

The epidemic continues to spread explosively around the world, and the number of confirmed cases worldwide quickly exceeded 1 million
.
At the same time, the global central bank has introduced a monetary release policy in an attempt to stabilize market confidence and increase market liquidity, and the People's Bank of China has continuously lowered the RRR
.
From the perspective of industry fundamentals, domestic terminal demand has slowly recovered, and export orders have been seriously canceled, and the obstruction is more obvious
.
The rate of inventory accumulation began to slow down, and aluminum rod stocks continued to fall
.
At present, the whole industry is generally losing money, and rumors of maintenance, production reduction, and storage are coming one after another
.
On the futures market, London aluminum continued to fall rapidly, and Shanghai aluminum showed some resistance
.
Whether the decline can be stopped here still needs time to be seen
.
Aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate
next week.