Aluminum prices stop falling in the short term and stabilize Pay attention to the follow-up epidemic trend

On the supply side, the pace of new domestic production is expected to accelerate
in May as cost pressures weaken.
Yunnan Hongtai and its Asia will add 100,000 tons and 50,000 tons of production capacity respectively, and Shenhuo will resume production capacity
of 35,000 tons.
Guangxi Bai Mine will provide 50,000 tons of new production capacity and 100,000 tons of resumption of production capacity, Guangxi Suyuan will also resume production of 50,000 tons, and Gansu Chalco Liancheng, Henan Jiaozuo and Shanxi Zhaofeng will also successfully resume production of 120,000 tons, 30,000 tons and 25,000 tons respectively
.
According to SMM, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to increase to 40.
7 million tons by the end of May, with an output of 3.
43 million tons
.

In terms of demand, after May Day, enterprises have resumed work one after another, and terminal demand such as automobiles has shown a recovery trend, and the operating rate of downstream leading processing enterprises in the week rose by 1.
3% to 58.
6%
in the first week after the holiday 。 The operating rate of aluminum profiles increased by 6% to 62.
5%, the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 5.
7% to 48.
8%, the operating rate of aluminum cables increased by 1.
4% to 55.
4%, the operating rate of aluminum plate and strip remained stable at 81%, the operating rate of aluminum foil remained stable at 79.
3%, and the operating rate of primary aluminum remained stable at 60%; Aluminum rod processing fees were mixed, Henan remained stable, Wuxi Linyi increased by 50-100 yuan / ton, Xinjiang Baotou Guangdong decreased by 20-50 yuan / ton; Aluminum rod processing fees were mixed, Shandong remained stable, Inner Mongolia Guangdong lowered by 25-50 yuan / ton, Henan increased by 50 yuan / ton; Aluminum alloy fell across the board, ADC12, A380 and ZLD102/104 were reduced by 200 yuan / ton, and A356 was reduced by 150 yuan / ton
.

In terms of inventory, in terms of exchange inventory, LME destocked 32,000 tons to 539,800 tons during the week, and Shanghai aluminum destocked 48,000 tons to 246,900 tons
.
In terms of social stocks, alumina was destocked 51,000 tons to 238,000 tons during the week; aluminum ingots were destocked 30,000 tons to 1.
003 million tons during the week; aluminum rods showed an accumulation trend, accumulating 06,500 tons to 146,000 tons
during the week.

At present, the performance of overseas supply and stock is insufficient, the import gap will continue to shift to the production side, and the speed of domestic new production is expected to further accelerate under the abundant profit margin, and it seems that the overall supply pressure is not large and there is still a
margin.
The market began to digest the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike, the market risk aversion has weakened, but liquidity contraction is a foregone conclusion, domestic auto sector demand will improve, the real estate sector continues to weaken, near-term demand is still difficult to say optimistic, supply and demand mismatch pattern continues
.
Aluminum prices may enter the logic of weak long-term shocks and short-term stabilization after downstream replenishment, and the inflection point focuses on the follow-up epidemic trend
.