Analysis of aluminum price trend in the domestic spot market in June

Macro: At the beginning of the month, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected, and hinted at a balance sheet reduction during the year, the dollar was boosted and soared, the center of gravity of the external market gradually declined, dragged down by the decline in the external market, coupled with the continuous increase in domestic inventories and off-season demand, domestic aluminum prices fell all the way
.
At the end of the month, the supply-side reform heated up again, which was conducive to the rise of aluminum prices, and the main force of Shanghai aluminum broke through the upward trend again, but the substantial effect of supply-side reform was limited, the market lacked substantial demand support, and domestic inventories remained high, making aluminum prices rise weakly, basically maintaining a range-bound market
.

Market: the overall trend of aluminum prices in East China in June can be described as falling first and then rising, the market news at the beginning of the month is calm, aluminum prices fell under the pressure of high inventory, falling to the lowest price since March, and then controlled by the shippers to ship, Xinjiang cleanup illegal production capacity is good to boost, aluminum prices have a wave of rising market, but the actual number of capacity has not yet been announced, the implementation is not enough, aluminum prices continue to rise
weakly 。 Different from the shock stabilization market in May, the aluminum price in South China fluctuated sharply in June, the price of aluminum ingot with tickets was as low as 13660 yuan / ton, the highest was 14190 yuan / ton, and as of the end of the month between 14090-14190 yuan / ton, 80 yuan higher than the end of May, the trading volume of local traders is acceptable, the downstream on-demand buying is the mainstay, market demand is weak, and corporate orders are reduced
.

As of June 29, Lun aluminum inventory has fallen to 1.
414 million tons, down about 59,800 tons from the end of May, and the long-term decline in inventory is good for Lun aluminum
。 As of June 23, the inventory of the Shanghai Exchange has reached 430,000 tons, an increase of 18,600 tons from the end of May, and a new high, and as of June 29, the Shanghai social inventory is as high as 262,000 tons; Wuxi 475,000 tons; the South China Sea 290,000 tons; Hangzhou 90,000 tons; Gongyi 81,000 tons; the total inventory of the five places is 1.
198 million tons
.
Overall, high inventories are still putting pressure
on aluminum prices.

Future market analysis: At present, supply-side reform continues to advance, which is good for aluminum prices, but the increase in electrolytic aluminum production and high inventories have put pressure
on aluminum prices.
In the medium and long term, the supply-side reform has not clarified the target, and the impact on aluminum prices is expected to be limited, and it is expected that next month Shanghai aluminum will still operate under the game of policy and fundamentals, with limited upside, and continue to pay attention to the 13500 mark support, the upper 14,000 pressure level remains, or the fluctuation range of 1.
35-14,000
ranges.
In terms of external disks, inventories continue to be low, and the global primary aluminum supply gap is widening, and the fundamentals of external disks are stronger than domestic
.