Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (2.13-2.17)

Macro: At the beginning of the week, driven by the Chilean copper mine strike, the aluminum market also received support, in addition, the US retail sales data in January was better than expected, strengthening economic growth confidence, and the outer market aluminum was shocked and rose sharply, during which it hit a nearly two-year high
.
In addition, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased year-on-year in January, indicating that market demand has picked up, and aluminum prices ushered in a wave of rising prices during the week
.
But since then, China's aluminum ingot social inventory continued to rise, the market was worried about supply pressure, nonferrous metals also began to fully pullback, and the central bank then reverse repurchase "fill the gap" indicates that the pressure on capital circulation is still large, the capital profit-taking, the metal ushered in Black Friday, the plate plunged sharply, the rise in aluminum prices was also limited, and there was a shock pullback market
.

Market: Aluminum prices rose overall this week, the price once rose to 14200 yuan / ton level, spot followed the futures fell sharply on Friday afternoon, and finally reported around 13850 yuan / ton
.
In the first half of the week, with the continuous rise of aluminum prices, the market shipments increased, and traders traded actively, but downstream users were generally cautious and wait-and-see, believing that aluminum prices still had room to fall, and stocking was only based on rigid demand; Futures fell sharply on Friday, holders vigorously sold goods, repeatedly adjusted prices, and posted the average price of the Yangtze River in the afternoon at the level of 150 yuan / ton, but there are still few downstream goods, believing that the price still has the possibility of
falling.
This weekend is mainly to digest inventory, wait for the beginning of next week aluminum prices to fall back to the appropriate price before purchasing, it is expected that the spot price at the beginning of next week will be 13700-13750 yuan / ton
.

In terms of inventory: this week's Lun aluminum inventory showed a straight downward trend, the latest inventory reported 2202350 metric tons, and the total inventory was reduced by 28,950 metric tons this week, a decrease of about 1.
3%; The total aluminum stock of the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week was 189218 tons, an increase of 10,314 tons, or about 5.
8%,
from last week.
As of the weekend, the inventory in the five places was 878,000 tons, up 100,000 tons from last week, and there is still the possibility of rising inventory, and the current downstream demand has not increased significantly, and the fundamentals have begun to weaken
.
It is expected that the aluminum market will be dominated by recent high volatility
.

Aftermarket analysis: After a continuous rebound, aluminum prices need to be adjusted, and the metal market ushered in Black Friday this Friday, and aluminum prices rose for four consecutive days and fell
back.
In terms of the market, prices have continued to rise in recent days, traders are actively shipping, but downstream prices are afraid that prices are too high, receiving limited goods, and this week's sharp increase in market inventory or inhibit the rise in aluminum prices, the future market is not optimistic
.
Overall, the high level of aluminum fell back, the trading volume increased slightly, because the early rise was too fast, resulting in high aluminum prices, some profit selling pressure, it is expected that the next cycle aluminum or maintain weak shock
.