Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (7.18-7.22)

On the macro front: China's second-quarter GDP growth of 6.
7% this week was unchanged from the first quarter, but manufacturing investment and private investment showed negative growth for the first time in June, and the IMF raised China's 2016 economic growth forecast to 6.
6%, while downgrading the global economic outlook
.
At the same time, Michigan consumer confidence in the United States unexpectedly plunged to 89.
5, a new low in nearly two years, but retail sales in June exceeded expectations, core CPI increased by 2.
3% year-on-year, the highest since 2009, the US economy rose steadily, and expectations of interest rate hikes rose
.
In addition, the dollar continued to strengthen, excessive inventories caused oil to plummet, ferrous metals were difficult to hide their decline, and many factors combined to cause non-ferrous metals to be pressured and frustrated
.

In terms of the market: the beginning of the week and the decline in the market, the holders actively shipped, the downstream willingness to receive goods cooled, and the sellers were slightly anxious
.
On Wednesday, news such as the supply affected by the flood boosted the confidence of bulls, the market rebounded, the holders supported the sale, the downstream passively received goods, and the spot pair futures rose from 80 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 180 yuan / ton at the weekend, and the transaction picked up
.
Next week is near the end of the month, the monthly long order delivery is completed, it is expected that next week's spot transaction will gradually come out of this week's madness, tend to be rational, and the inventory still has a slight decline, coupled with the continuous heavy rain in various places, transportation or affected, the spot is still in a tight state, it is expected that next week's spot pair futures will return slightly for the month of premium
.

Stocks: As of July 22, LME aluminum stocks reported 2,325,000 tons, a weekly increase of 5,875 tons or 0.
37%, the first increase in decades, and still close to the low point (2302025 tons) set on December 30, 2008; In the same period, the previous period of aluminum stocks reported 133602 tons, a weekly decrease of 10,456 tons, the seventeenth decrease in 18 weeks, far lower than the average inventory value of 271,000 tons during the year, hitting a low since October 28, 2011 (113329 tons).

Domestic spot inventories continue to decline overall, at the lowest level in recent years, in addition, transportation problems have once again led to low inventories, it is expected that before the inflection point of aluminum ingot inventory, spot premiums will continue, aluminum prices will also continue to be firm, and the room for decline is limited
.

Aftermarket analysis: This week's aluminum prices showed a downward trend, due to the recent recovery of southern capacity, the previous backlog of aluminum ingots gradually arrived, the tight supply situation has eased, pushing down the recent spot performance, but from the perspective of spot consumption, although the transaction is general, but the holder firm selling price, the spot premium expanded to 170 yuan, so it is predicted that the domestic aluminum price or supported by the strong spot, is expected to have limited room for decline
.
Next week's Fed interest rate meeting, although the market expects another interest rate hike is unlikely, but uncertainties still plague the market, so risk aversion heats up, and short-term volatility is the mainstay
.