Analysis of aluminum price trend in Yangtze River spot market (7.4-7.8)

On the macro front: The pound continued to fall after Brexit this week, hitting a 32-year low as the aftermath of the Brexit referendum continued to heat up risk aversion among global investors, bond yields in developed countries hit new lows, and the Bank of England said it was unable to fully offset the impact of Brexit and hinted at a possible interest rate
cut this summer.
At the same time, the Fed must wait and see how Brexit affects the US and global economies, be patient with interest rate hikes, and ADP employment rose by 172,000 in June, beating expectations, and the dollar rose rapidly after the data, weighing on non-ferrous metals
.

Market: prices remain high this week, market transactions at the beginning of the week are poor, holders are selling at high prices, traders and downstream enterprises are afraid of heights, with the fluctuation of aluminum prices, holders began to actively ship, traders actively look for low-priced sources, bargain replenishment, downstream on-demand procurement
.
On Friday, the price of aluminum is still firm, the holder sells at a high price, the average price in the Yangtze River is about +20 yuan / ton, the premium has risen sharply, the willingness of traders to receive goods has risen, while some traders empty the inventory at low prices, and there is a slight stocking phenomenon downstream, but they still purchase on demand and maintain a cautious attitude
.

Inventory: As of July 8, LME aluminum stocks reported 2,351,250 tons, down 64,625 tons from 2,415,875 tons last week; during the same period, aluminum stocks in the previous period decreased by 14,343 tons to 149321 tons
.
At present, aluminum inventories are at a low level, and the resumption of production has recently accelerated, and it is expected to be in
place from July to August.
At present, low inventories and strong external disks support prices, in addition, weather factors have hindered railway transportation in the South China Sea, and local supply is tight, and the short-term decline in aluminum prices is expected to be limited
.
In the later stage, focus on off-season demand, as well as inventory trends
.

Aftermarket analysis: entering the off-season, demand may fall, but inventory continues to shrink, coupled with the impact of heavy rain, the aluminum ingots sent by Northwest aluminum plants to East China and South China have been delayed, and spot aluminum supply remains tight, which supports aluminum prices, and the downside space is limited
.
This week's domestic aluminum price performance is slightly stronger than other base metals, showing its intrinsic willingness to resist the fall is strong, but the current aluminum price has not yet got rid of the high shock trend, it is expected that the short-term aluminum price is still based on range sorting
.