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According to the monitoring data of the cable network, after the rush back down in September, the copper price in October not only returned to a strong position, but also refreshed the high level of the year, and then although the price failed to rush twice and the price fell, but the magnitude was relatively small, still at the high level
of the year.
In the spot market, represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, the copper price at the beginning of the month was 52,500 yuan / ton, and the copper price at the end of the month was 54,640 yuan / ton, up 2,140 yuan, an increase of 4.
1%.
Macro: China's copper imports in September exceeded expectations by 19.
6%, triggering optimistic expectations for copper demand and the return of bullish confidence, supporting copper prices; According to the International Copper Research Group, the global refined copper market is estimated to be short of 151,000 tons in 2017 and 104,000 tons in 2018, while upstream supply uncertainty has not been properly resolved, and the widening gap between supply and demand supports copper prices to continue to rise, and copper prices rose strongly at the end of the month to the highest
level in more than four and a half years.
However, the overall strong performance of the recently released US economic data brought a basis for the Fed to raise interest rates this year, and the expectation of interest rate hikes strengthened to boost the confidence of US dollar bulls, and the dollar rebounded above the 94 mark at the end of the month, retouching a more than three-month high, and the rally continues to expand, and the upside space for copper prices to come under pressure in the later period is limited
.
Market: Although there are not many domestic copper market trading dates in October, the price fluctuations are very violent, and the weekly copper price has fluctuated sharply by more than 500 yuan
.
In the case of sharp fluctuations in copper prices, the overall market sentiment in October was more cautious, especially in terms of downstream purchasing merchants, the procurement source is mainly based on just need to stock, only in the event of a pullback, will slightly increase the stock
.
On the whole, the demand for spot copper in October was not very satisfactory, mainly limited by the stocking of merchants before the National Day and the high copper price after the holiday
.
In terms of supply, the domestic spot copper market in October was relatively limited, and the willingness of holders to raise prices was very strong, except for the short-term narrowing of spot copper premium before and after the month change, the rest of the time good copper basically remained above
200.
It is known that this phenomenon improved at the end of October, as many imported copper flooded into the domestic market
after the profit window for imported copper continued to open.
In terms of inventory: at the end of the month, the stock of London copper fell, and the weekly cumulative reduction of inventory was 15,000 metric tons to 272625 metric tons, a cumulative decrease of 5.
22%, hitting a low level of nearly one and a half months; Shanghai copper stocks decreased by 4,775 tons to 107892 tons, a decrease of about 4.
24%.
The sharp decline in copper inventory must give birth to a trend of enterprises and market replenishment of inventory, and this trend in the current environmental protection under high pressure, the market will not necessarily appear rapid replenishment action, then if the market has insufficient copper supply, copper prices will directly break through
.
Aftermarket analysis: On the whole, the continued improvement of the global macroeconomy is the fundamental reason for the rise in copper prices, China's economy is stable and improving, IMF, OECD and other international institutions are optimistic about China's economic prospects, have raised the forecast of China's economic growth in 2017 and 2018, the demand for industrial metal terminal industry is still optimistic, economic stability and basic orientation will provide upward momentum
for copper prices.
After copper prices rise, technical repairs will be inevitable, and after the technical situation is sorted out, copper prices will rise again
.
As far as the future market is concerned, after the departure of the traditional "gold nine silver ten" demand season, it is difficult to be too optimistic about the recovery of copper market demand, and the poor performance of domestic manufacturing data in the fourth quarter has aggravated this worry, and the later copper price trend may be more hopeful on the supply side
.
