Analysis of copper price trend in Yangtze River spot market (5.15-5.19)

Macro aspect: Domestic macro data for April, except for the cumulative retail sales of consumer goods that were flat year-on-year and expected, other data were less than expected, and the market suspected that China's latest round of economic rebound may have shown signs
of peaking.
Subsequently, the central bank increased its efforts in open market operations to release liquidity, and regulators continued to calm the panic caused by financial supervision, and the overall market sentiment temporarily eased
.
However, the start of new housing in the United States in April was less than expected, coupled with Trump's "leak door" and "fear of science gate", the market believes that the probability of Trump's impeachment this year has soared, the dollar index hit the lowest 97.
333, the macro market turmoil has resumed, and the weakening of the dollar has also provided some impetus
for the rebound of copper prices.

Market: last week's inventory increased, the domestic market circulation of goods continued to increase, at the beginning of this week, due to the entry of the delivery time, traders trading a large number of reductions, but also because the downstream manufacturers demand is very light, trading light, Tuesday, some manufacturers in the delivery period shutdown maintenance, procurement demand is weak, and traders a small amount of procurement reserve, trading is still light, Wednesday, traders shipment enthusiasm is still okay but downstream procurement willingness is still weak, Thursday, the price fell sharply, holders insisted on prices, downstream demand slightly improved, Low-price sources are favored by the market, downstream destocking continues to advance, local arrivals have increased slightly, and trading among traders has picked up
.
On the last trading day of the week, although the holders actively quoted, the downstream was still mainly wait-and-see, supply and demand were slightly deadlocked, the transaction was weak, and the premium was basically the same as the
previous day.

In terms of inventories: London copper stocks fell this week, with a cumulative increase of 7,275 metric tons to 336,650 metric tons, a cumulative increase of 2.
21%.

Shanghai copper inventories rose by 1,365 tonnes, or about 0.
7%, to 196358 tonnes this week
.
LME inventories increased by a total of 10,975 tonnes to 340,000 tonnes this week, and the average discount in the LME spot market narrowed this week, with the LME spot discount averaging $17.
88, narrowing from last week's discount of $24.
25
.
The domestic spot market returned to the discount state after the month change, the overall market supply was abundant, the downstream on-demand procurement was the mainstay, and the overall transaction did not see significant improvement
.

Future market analysis: Overall, the global macroeconomic recovery is relatively moderate, the Trump leak has not seen a significant impact for the time being, but the tightening of funds and the joint supervision of the financial industry has been putting pressure on the copper market, the downstream has always entered the market in the consumption season is limited, with the end of the consumption season terminal consumption on copper support role will gradually weaken, copper prices rise space is limited, medium-term maintenance of short thinking, short-term domestic economy overall decline trend to copper demand to a certain extent, market sentiment is still empty, it is expected that copper will still be under pressure next week
。