Analysis of domestic PVC market this week (8.1-8.5)

The reasons for the increase in prices in the PVC market this week are analyzed as follows:

On a macro front, this week, the US added 255,000 non-farm payrolls in July, significantly better than the expected 180,000, and the June value was revised up to 292,000 from 287,000
.
Domestically, Caixin China's composite PMI rose to 51.
9, the most significant growth rate since September 2014
.
The improvement in the composite PMI in July was due to the sharp upside
of the manufacturing PMI.
At present, PVC market prices are supported by rising factors, and PVC fundamentals have risen
slightly.

In the upstream market, the price of the domestic calcium carbide market rose this week, and the purchase price of chlor-alkali enterprises rose continuously
.
The ex-factory price of calcium carbide enterprises is also hitting new highs, and the ex-factory price of some ex-factory enterprises in Ningxia has risen to more than 2300 yuan / ton, and some enterprises do not ship at low prices, seeking high-end prices
.
Asian ethylene market prices were stable, CFR Northeast Asia prices held steady at 1094.
5-1096.
5 US dollars / ton; CFR Southeast Asia prices held steady at $1034.
5-1036.
5/mt
.

Spot market: Some domestic PVC spot market prices rose this
week.
North China calcium carbide law reported 5560 yuan / ton, up 30; ethylene law reported 5840 yuan / ton, up 40; East China calcium carbide law reported 5700 yuan / ton, flat, ethylene method reported 5880 yuan / ton, flat
.
South China calcium carbide method reported 5660, flat, ethylene method 6010 tons, flat
.
The price of raw materials was basically flat, East China reported 2700 yuan, flat, and Northwest reported 2240 yuan, flat
.

Future market forecast: This week, the trend of the PVC physical market is volatile and upward
.
Fundamentally, affected by environmental protection policies, calcium carbide supply is slightly insufficient, supporting stronger prices
.
PVC cost support has been further strengthened, and the market quotation of PVC manufacturers has shown an overall upward trend
.
Traders also ship at high prices with the market, but there is resistance to high-priced goods downstream, and the market trading is slightly flat
.
The PVC market in the futures market fluctuated to the upside, which greatly boosted the confidence of all market participants, and the speculation and rising sentiment were strong
.
Short-term PVC social inventory remains at a medium-low level, but the downstream is tepid, and the futures price is expected to remain range-bound
.