Analysis of the market trend of natural rubber standard rubber in July

The reasons for the decline in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

On the macro front, the risk of Brexit began to show itself earlier this month, with a number of European banking stocks plummeting, almost to historic lows during the European debt crisis
.
Domestically, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, in June, the ex-factory price of industrial producers nationwide fell by 0.
2% month-on-month and 2.
6%
year-on-year.
At the end of the month, the annualized preliminary month-on-month growth rate of US GDP in the second quarter was 1.
2%, significantly lower than the expected value of 2.
5%, and the previous value was revised from 1.
1% to 0.
8%.

Domestically, industry insiders expect that the year-on-year increase in CPI in July may be about 1.
7%, further slowing down
from the previous month.
At present, the price of tianjiao is not supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have fallen
slightly.

Second, in terms of market, the 14-year Yunnan state-owned whole milk in Shanghai was about 10,900 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton; In 14 years, Hainan state-owned whole milk was about 10150 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton; In Shandong, the 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk was about 10,150 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton; The 15-year quotation of private full latex in Yunnan was about 10,300 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton
.

Third, in terms of inventory, as of the end of July, the inventory of the previous period was 345,900 tons, an increase of 13,200 tons from the beginning of July, and the inventory of the last period of Tianjiao reached a historical high level.

Fourth, in terms of demand, this month, the operating rate of all-steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 71% in China, and the operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 72%, which was basically the same
as last month.
The slight low operating rate of downstream tires has a certain negative impact on the tianjiao market, coupled with the domestic tire affected by the United States double reverse, tire exports have not improved, which is a major negative impact on the demand side, the contradiction between the supply and demand of tianjiao is gradually tightening, and the price of tianjiao market has declined
slightly.

Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
At present, domestic economic recovery concerns have intensified, demand expectations have weakened, and the volatility of Shanghai rubber has intensified
due to the external environment.
From a fundamental point of view, the demand side of rubber has not seen a significant improvement, the supply is stable, and the strong rebound of the futures price is not caused by a real change in the relationship between supply and demand, but the result of a comprehensive rise in commodities, and the passive and rising situation of rubber will not change
.
Inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline, and heavy-duty truck sales continued to increase sharply year-on-year in June, and China's tire exports rose 9%, indicating that downstream demand performance was acceptable
.
With the successive cutting of domestic rubber production areas, the supply of raw materials has increased, and the price of glue has fallen, but the raw materials in the production areas have not yet been released due to the weather in the early stage
.
Volatility has increased in recent days due to increased market uncertainty
.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern
in the short term.