Analysis of the trend of the national standard rubber market this week (8.14-8.18)

The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:

1.
In terms of macro, Thai rubber department officials said on the 16th that Asia's largest rubber manufacturers will meet in Thailand in September, and will put the plan to raise rubber prices with export restrictions on the agenda
.
The International Tripartite Rubber Council (ITRC), which is made up of Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's top natural rubber producers, is reported to meet once a year
.

2.
In terms of market, the quotation of Qingdao Zhongqing Oak International Trade Co.
, Ltd.
was raised
compared with the 15th.
The quotation of 15-year Baodao whole milk is about 12650 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than the quotation on the 15th; The price of 16-year Baodao whole milk is about 13,000 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton
higher than the 15th.

3.
In terms of inventory, the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone has entered a downward channel, and as of mid-August, the inventory of the free trade zone has declined
for four consecutive periods.
Current stocks total 226,400 tonnes, down 07,200 tonnes
from early August.
Among them, the stock of natural rubber was 171,300 tons, a decrease of 09,200 tons from the first half of August, and the inventory fell by more than 5%; The inventory of synthetic rubber was 50,900 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons over the previous period; the inventory of composite rubber was 04,200 tons, a decrease of 01,000 tons
.

4.
In terms of demand, since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of China's narrow passenger car sales has gradually increased, and the current growth rate has exceeded 5%
for two consecutive months.
Negative factors such as the overdraft effect of the early purchase tax, the reduction of new energy vehicle subsidies, and the off-season of the industry have been gradually eliminated, and terminal demand has grown
steadily.

5.
Future market forecast: The preliminary forecast of this network analysis shows that natural rubber is gradually digesting inventory, and the situation of oversupply has been improved
.
It is expected that next week's spot quotations will still have upside
.