Analyst: Iranian crude oil may be killed back into the international market on a large scale, pushing oil prices significantly lower

Analyst: Iranian crude oil may be massively killed back into the international market, driving oil prices significantly lower;

(1) The analysis pointed out that the next step of US-Iran talks is more likely, for the United States, the Biden administration needs such a diplomatic victory to help it maintain as many advantages as possible in this year's midterm elections, and at the same time, it is also to continue to strengthen the consistent strategy of the United States to "withdraw from the Middle East";

(2) Iran's current oil production capacity is about 4 million barrels per day (200 million tons per year, which can become the world's fifth largest oil producer), of which about 45% is for domestic consumption (1.
8 million barrels per day).

In the absence of sanctions, Iran exports more than 2 million barrels of crude oil per day, mainly to the European Union, China and India, with exports reaching 600,000 barrels per day
each.
Due to the resumption of US sanctions, Iran's crude oil (including condensate) daily exports fell by 84% from nearly 2.
5 million barrels in 2017 to 400,000 barrels in 2020.

(3) The analysis pointed out that if the shrunken version of the "Iranian nuclear agreement" can be reached and the United States immediately lifts oil sanctions against Iran, then it is foreseeable that in 2023, Iran's foreign oil exports will return to the level
of 2017.
An additional 2 million barrels per day were injected into the international market
.
This will quickly change the supply and demand of the international crude oil market from a tight balance of about 1.
5 million barrels per day to an easing mode of more than 3 million barrels per day, resulting in a significant decline
in oil prices.
It is expected that in 2023-2024, the Iranian oil and gas market will be redeveloped, which will attract a large number of foreign investors to return or enter the Iranian market
.