April 12 aluminum market afternoon comment

On Friday, Lun aluminum rushed back down and fell more than 3.
5%, closing in the long negative, opening slightly higher at $3260 today
.
Shanghai aluminum opened low and closed low overnight, closing at 20670.
Shanghai aluminum trading fell and positions rose, and market sentiment was biased towards
neutrality.
The situation in Russia and Ukraine has a greater impact on the market, market sentiment is not good, the short-term trend of Shanghai aluminum is weak, the adjustment continues, the medium-term fundamentals are acceptable, and there is no excessive pessimism
.
Upper pressure 23000, lower support 20000
.

The Russian-Ukrainian war continues, Putin announced that the first phase of the goal has been achieved, Europe and the United States continue to increase sanctions, but at present, it does not affect the production and sales of Rusal, and the sanctions have led to the continued rise in energy and electricity costs or once again triggered the reduction
of overseas aluminum supply.
The Fed's hawkish signal to increase interest rates under persistent inflationary pressures put pressure
on the entire commodity in the later period.

From the perspective of domestic fundamentals, aluminum production capacity has recovered beyond expectations, but it will take time to fully recover; Demand was affected by the continuous spread of the epidemic, Guangzhou entered the epidemic prevention and control sequence after Shanghai, and the two major consumption places were affected by the epidemic to hit market confidence, and there was still uncertainty while recovering, and the domestic short-term weak operation
.
However, the improvement of the epidemic in the later period and the delay of the peak season will bring rebound momentum to the price
.