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Overnight, Shanghai aluminum 2205 reported 20670 down 660, LME aluminum closed at 3251.
5 down 120.
5; macro aspect, the domestic epidemic blocked logistics transportation, the Ministry of Transport required road transportation continuously, and the State Council issued the "Notice on Effectively Doing a Good Job in Ensuring the Smooth Operation of Freight Logistics"; The Fed's March minutes realistically prepare for a 50 basis point rate hike in the coming months and plan to accelerate the reduction of the balance sheet; In March, social financing increased by 4.
65 trillion yuan, which exceeded expectations, and the efforts to stabilize credit were effective, but the market demand performance was insufficient
.
After the Qingming Festival, the pressure of the epidemic still exists, Yunnan has a good rhythm of resumption of production, and electrolytic aluminum plants in Shandong and Shanxi can maintain a normal production rhythm under prevention and control management, but the impact of logistics is greater, enterprises generally have the problem of unmarketable aluminum ingots and intermediate products, the proportion of downstream direct supply of aluminum liquid has plummeted, and the proportion of ingots has increased significantly, and it is expected that the domestic aluminum ingot social library will continue to accumulate before mid-April
.
The current fundamentals are weak; The impact of the short-term epidemic is more significant, the relative improvement of domestic demand is not large, and there is a certain possibility
of backwardness in the peak season cycle.
If the epidemic begins to improve, aluminum profiles or lead downstream demand to take the lead in recovery, aluminum prices are still supported in the long run, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic
.
