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First, the fundamentals
First, the fundamentals1.
According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output in March increased by 3.
4% year-on-year to 2.
88 million tons; Q1 production totaled 8.
57 million mt, up 3.
9%
from a year earlier.
With the steady increase in the current price, the cost of electrolytic aluminum has moved down, and the recovery of corporate profits may stimulate the release of new production and resumption of production capacity, and it is expected that electrolytic aluminum production will still be in a growth trend in April, which is not good
for prices.
2.
China's alumina output in March 2019 was about 5.
71 million tons, an increase of about 3.
6% month-on-month and about 3.
1%
year-on-year.
From January to March this year, China's alumina production accumulated about 16.
94 million tons, an increase of about 4.
0%
over the same period last year.
According to statistics, the output of alumina in Shandong in March was about 1.
93 million tons, unchanged from the previous month; Alumina production in Shanxi was about 1.
69 million tons, an increase of about 4.
7% month-on-month; Henan's output was about 850,000 tons, an increase of about 10.
4% month-on-month; Guangxi's output was about 650,000 tons, an increase of about 3.
2% month-on-month; Production in Guizhou was 350,000 tons, an increase of about 6.
1%
month-on-month.
3.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 546,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products (including primary aluminum, aluminum alloys and semi-finished aluminum products) in March, a sharp climb of 60.
6% from 340,000 tons in February and an increase of 21.
3%
from 450,000 tons in the same period last year.
From January to March, China's cumulative exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 1,441,000 tons, an increase of 13.
6%
year-on-year.
4.
According to customs data, according to customs data, China's import of aluminum scrap in March was 126,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 40.
5% and a month-on-month increase of 54.
0%.
The total amount of imported aluminum scrap from January to March was 332,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.
7%.
Second, the market review
Second, the market review
This month's Shanghai aluminum index trend is slightly stronger, from the trend point of view, the fundamental improvement is still expected to drive the aluminum price to strengthen, but the recent aluminum price continues to strengthen, does not rule out the need for consolidation, temporarily pay attention to the 14,000 mark support, the overall trend is still biased to firm, so it is expected that the downside is not large, there is still the possibility of rising in the later period, it is expected that the Shanghai aluminum shock in May will rise slightly, pay attention to the range of 1.
38-14,500
.
In the external market, Lun aluminum fluctuated and fell this month; From the plate point of view, the lack of good news to boost, short-term London aluminum to maintain a low volatility market, below temporarily focus on the 1800 mark support, even if it falls below, will repeatedly test this mark, and stand firm, the deep fall space is limited, it is expected to rebound after the low volatility of London aluminum in May, pay attention to the $1780-1900 range shock
.
In terms of the market, due to the relatively flat price trend of electrolytic aluminum in mid-to-early April, traders have limited operating profit margins, and their enthusiasm for entering the market is not yet active, while the downstream mostly maintains an on-demand procurement strategy; Since the middle and late stages, with the sharp rebound of prices, the market transaction performance of the supply, but mostly reflected in the traders, downstream enterprises due to fear of heights emotional willingness to receive goods is not high, and then due to the overall price performance of the shock is strong, downstream enterprises are forced to receive goods at high prices, a small amount of on-demand buying, but driven by traders, the overall market transaction is
acceptable.
East China: macroeconomic improvement and electrolytic aluminum cost end stop falling and stabilize, coupled with downstream consumption gradually improved, electrolytic aluminum destocking has signs of acceleration, boosting aluminum prices in April, the overall performance is rising after the shock, the trend is better than in March, East China spot aluminum station on the 14,000 mark, repeatedly hit a new high
in nearly half a year.
As of the end of April, spot aluminum in East China was between 14160-14200 yuan / ton, up 260 yuan / ton from the end of March, an increase of nearly 2%.
South China: 4 South China aluminum ingot prices rose after the shock, most of the increase was reflected in the middle and late months, aluminum ingot ticket prices rose to around 14500 after the upward momentum weakened significantly, as of the end of the month between 14430-14530 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton from the end of March, the increase was expanded compared with East China, mainly due to the slow recovery of downstream demand in South China after the year, and gradually improved in April, which is also the main reason for the decline in electrolytic aluminum stocks in the South China Sea in April; Brokerage trading was also more active, with overall trading in April being better than March
.
3.
Inventory
Inventory
LME aluminum inventories showed a downward trend as a whole this month, but on April 29, Lin aluminum inventories increased sharply, with a single-day increase of 4.
7%, the largest increase in four months; Total stocks reached 1.
069 million tons, down 60,100 tons, or 5.
32%,
from the end of March.
The rapid increase in inventories has put pressure
on the price of Lun aluminum.
As of April 26, the aluminum inventory of the Shanghai Exchange was 638,000 tons, down 97,000 tons, or 13.
19%,
from the end of March.
Domestic social stocks, as of April 29, Shanghai area 285,000 tons, Wuxi area 532,000 tons, Hangzhou area 115,000 tons, Gongyi area 107,000 tons, South China Sea area 323,000 tons, Tianjin 58,000 tons, Linyi 22,000 tons, Chongqing 28,000 tons, consumption area aluminum ingot stocks a total of 1.
470 million tons; stocks continued to decline, making Shanghai aluminum strong.
Fourth, the waste market
Fourth, the waste marketThe price of scrap aluminum in April rose more obviously than in March, and the enthusiasm of the holders to ship was higher, but the price was mostly shipped, the overall supply of the market was abundant, scrap aluminum profiles and aluminum wire were still favored by the market, and the price rose positively; The supply of hybrid aluminum, cans, aluminum chips, and aluminum shavings is inferior, mainly because of taste and purity problems; In addition, it is understood that in the early half of the year, recycled aluminum and aluminum rod manufacturers stocked more actively, but later with the high price of raw materials, downstream recycled aluminum alloy ingot prices followed the slow rise and other reasons led to a narrowing of profits, manufacturers began to control the amount of receipts, the price pressure was more obvious, and the overall market transaction was still more active
than in March.
In April, the price of scrap aluminum followed the upward movement of aluminum ingots, and the increase in South China was obvious, mostly at 150-300 yuan, and as of the end of April, the mainstream of aluminum in South China was around 10400; Other regions are slightly inferior, mostly around 100 yuan, the current aluminum line in East China around 11900, cans around 8800, pure can price can add 100-200 yuan / ton; According to the demand of merchants, the price range of scrap aluminum materials has widened, and the mainstream spray coating is around
10200-10400.
Post-holiday market forecast: aluminum fundamentals slightly improved, electrolytic aluminum prices are relatively firm, or the price of scrap aluminum has been boosted, after the holiday scrap aluminum or stable medium and small rise market, holders are favorable to shipments, beware of price decline
.
5.
Market outlook
Market outlook
Loose macro environment, domestic and foreign inventories have declined, optimistic demand expectations, multiple favorable coexistence to support the rise in aluminum prices, spot aluminum prices this month was boosted
.
From the current consumption situation, electrolytic aluminum in the construction, electronic power and transportation fields of consumption continues to increase, especially China's counter-cyclical infrastructure investment, urbanization rate continues to increase, transportation lightweight and other urgent needs, it is expected that the consumption growth rate will be greater than the supply growth rate, the gap between domestic supply and demand will expand, aluminum prices may rise
.
Spot aluminum prices in May may continue to maintain strong volatility
.
