April 26 Shanghai aluminum afternoon comment

In terms of fundamentals, consumption performance is strong, Wuxi warehouse limited loading and stop railway containers arrived, inventory will still go under the epidemic, SMM inventory on the 25th reported 1.
016 million tons, down 05,000 tons from last Thursday; during the same period, the steel union statistics aluminum rod inventory was 140,500 tons, down 06,000 tons from last Thursday; in March 2022, China exported 594,300 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products; the cumulative export from January to March was 1.
6283 million tons, an increase of 26.
7%
year-on-year 。 China imported 197,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in March, down 4.
6% year-on-year, and the cumulative total imports from January to March were 533,000 tons, down 19.
4%
year-on-year.
Domestic electrolytic aluminum production slowed down, production was gradually released, and the total operating capacity was close to 41 million tons, higher than the same period
last year.
The sharp fall in spot has not triggered the basis to strengthen for the time being, and the downstream is still waiting and seeing
.

Domestic supply and demand gradually improved, inventories dematerialized, the epidemic postponed the arrival of the consumption season, and the short-term and medium-term expectations are good, but the US dollar trend is strong, the pressure of RMB exchange rate depreciation is greater, capital risk aversion is rising, aluminum technology is short, it is recommended to maintain value to avoid risks, and wait and see
.