August 29 aluminum market noon comment

Crude fell slightly on Friday, as London aluminium jumped more than 2 percent
in the evening, spurred by news of a production cut at a large European refinery.
Shanghai aluminum opened sharply higher overnight, rushed back down to close the doji, closed at 19030.
Shanghai aluminum trading positions are rising, and the market sentiment is optimistic
.
The European energy crisis continues to ferment, the external market trend is strong, the domestic demand into the off-season is general, and the internal disk is weaker than the external market
.
Considering the cost support around 18,000 below and domestic power cuts, aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate
above 18,000.
Upper pressure 20000, lower support 18000
.

Although the 1.
07 million tons of production suspended in Sichuan and Chongqing due to domestic power cuts will take at least 2 months to recover, the current demand is relatively poor, and the impetus for aluminum prices is relatively limited
.
With the end of the hot weather and the arrival of the peak season in September, consumption may improve
month-on-month.
The current contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent, and it is expected that aluminum prices will remain strong and volatile in the short term; In the second half of the year, there are still many increments on the supply side at home and abroad, and the macro atmosphere in Europe and the United States is empty, and the medium and long-term bearish thinking
is maintained.
It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the consumption side and the commissioning of new production capacity, as well as the changes
in domestic social inventory.