Authoritative interpretation: the development trend of the global market of chemical fertilizers, pesticides and agricultural machinery

Chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and agricultural machinery are very important means of production in agricultural production, and have made a huge contribution to providing effective and safe food supply for the world's population
.
Recently, the Overseas Agricultural Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences released a think tank report "Overseas Agricultural Products Market Research (Agricultural Materials)", focusing on analyzing the main supply and demand situation, trade situation, and industry development trends of fertilizers, pesticides, and agricultural machinery from a global perspective.
The research provides an important reference for the development of modern agriculture in China and the agro-related enterprises going global
.
1 Fertilizer: The trend of oversupply of chemical fertilizer in the world is obvious.
Global demand is declining.
The price fluctuation report shows that the supply and demand of chemical fertilizer in 2019 are about 232.
31 million tons and 190.
50 million tons, an increase of 1.
2% and 0.
90% year-on-year respectively
.
In the past five years, the growth rate of fertilizer supply has been higher than that of fertilizer demand, and the trend of oversupply has become more and more obvious
.
The pattern of global fertilizer trade has basically remained relatively stable.
Asia is the core area for nitrogen fertilizer production and consumption, Asia and the Americas are the main battlefields for phosphate fertilizer production and consumption; Europe and the Americas are the main potash fertilizer production areas, and Asia and the Americas are the main potash fertilizer consumption areas
.
China's consumption of nitrogen, phosphorus and potash fertilizer ranks first
.
According to relevant data from the World Bank and the International Fertilizer Industry Association, due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the demand for chemical fertilizers in 2020 is expected to drop by 2.
9% compared with 2019.
It is predicted that the demand for chemical fertilizers will rebound in 2021, returning to 189 million tons.
Among them, it is estimated that nitrogen will increase by 2.
2 million tons, and phosphorus and potash fertilizer will increase by about 1.
2 million tons and 1 million tons
.
It is estimated that by 2024, global fertilizer demand is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.
7%, reaching 197.
1 million tons
.
Nitrogen fertilizer demand is expected to recover faster than phosphate and potash fertilizers
.
Of course, this depends on whether the new crown pneumonia epidemic can be effectively controlled
.
Due to the decline in global fertilizer demand, potash and urea prices have fallen
.
Dr.
Chuan Limin from the Institute of Agricultural Information and Economics, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences analyzed that the recent factors affecting the changes in fertilizer prices are mainly reflected in changes in supply and demand, upstream raw material costs, agricultural product prices, climate impacts, and manual transportation costs.
Fertilizer prices are determined by the market.
The supply and demand situation is dominated, and the lack of demand momentum affects the price decline and volatility
.
2 Pesticides: Costs and prices have both decreased, and cross-border mergers and acquisitions of companies have intensified competition.
The think tank report shows that the total global pesticide sales in 2019 was US$65.
9 billion, an increase of 0.
8% year-on-year.
In 2019, the global crop pesticide market sales were US$57.
79 billion.
A year-on-year increase of 0.
4%; sales of non-crop pesticides were US$7.
8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.
5%
.
Affected by the low national oil prices, the low prices of major chemicals have reduced the cost of pesticide production.
However, due to the weakening of downstream market demand, pesticide manufacturers have to lower their prices and make the cost and price of pesticide products drop
.
The production capacity and output of pesticides in China have been in the forefront of the world.
The quality of products has been steadily improved, and the varieties have been continuously increased.
A relatively complete industrial system including R&D, production and sales of technical materials has been formed.
It is the country with the most complete pesticide industry chain
.
In recent years, the output of chemical pesticides in China has declined, falling to 2,253,900 tons in 2019, but the quality of pesticide products has steadily improved, and the variety has continued to increase
.
China's pesticide production companies are mainly distributed in Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Zhejiang and other provinces.
The output value of pesticide industry in these five provinces accounts for more than 60% of the country
.
There are 28 pesticide companies with pesticide sales revenue of more than 1 billion yuan .
The opening of the pesticide market has accelerated the process of internationalization of domestic pesticide companies
.
Domestic enterprises are speeding up the development of foreign markets, establishing joint ventures abroad or directly acquiring foreign well-known companies, making China gradually become the world's main production base for pesticide raw materials and preparations
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The outstanding difference of the Chinese Pesticide Corps has made China a strong pesticide power alongside Germany and the United States
.
The report analyzes the global pesticide market, and mergers and acquisitions are still the strategic choice and main theme for the future development of pesticide companies
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Global pesticides have entered the post-patent era, and the competition among agrochemical companies has become more intense.
Low-toxicity, environmental protection, and sustainable development are still the development direction of the pesticide industry.

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China's pesticide industry will also intensify its integration and continue to develop in the direction of intensification and scale
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3 Agricultural machinery: The sales of various agricultural machinery products have declined, and the market monopoly of multinational companies has further increased.
The think tank report found that the global agricultural machinery market has entered a recession again in 2019.
North America, Europe and Asia, which are the world's three major agricultural machinery markets, have basically seen sales of major agricultural machinery products.
Stable or declining trend; The world's agricultural machinery product trade pattern is basically stable, and the prominent feature is still the high concentration of major agricultural machinery products, the key export countries are developed countries such as Germany and the United States, the import concentration is low, the distribution of importing countries is relatively scattered, etc.
; developed The key direction of national or regional industrial support policies is to promote the development of precision agriculture, and the key support of developing countries is to accelerate the development of agricultural mechanization.
The pace of industrial development in some emerging countries is gradually accelerating; well-known multinational companies are further accelerating the pace of expansion in the global market, although the operating situation is different , But the world’s five well-known agricultural machinery multinational companies are all facing the agricultural machinery market in North America, South America, Europe and Asia, and are constantly adopting new strategies to expand overseas markets.
Some companies have begun to accelerate the development of the huge potential market in Africa
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Associate researcher Zhang Meng of the Nanjing Institute of Agricultural Mechanization of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs analyzed that the global agricultural machinery market is expected to show a downturn in the short term
.
Whether the global market can recover again depends mainly on the prevention and control situation of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the release of the development potential of emerging markets represented by the vast number of developing countries
.
The world's well-known agricultural machinery multinational companies will continue to face potential areas and further expand the overseas agricultural machinery market.
The possible forms are mainly mergers and acquisitions of well-known agricultural machinery companies or the purchase of equity
.
Source: Fertilizer International Trade