Bottom support strengthens Copper prices show a weak shock rebound pattern

Overseas, the U.
S.
economic data performed poorly, with the Fed minutes suggesting that the pace of subsequent interest rate hikes may slow down due to recession fears, market risk appetite has been repaired, and speculation has returned
.
The dollar index extended its downward trend during the week, falling back below 102 from a high of 103
.
Signs of slowing growth are also evident in Europe, where the IIF lowered its global GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 2.
3%
from 4.
6%.
The ECB's expectation of three 25 basis point interest rate hikes this year has basically been fully digested by the market, and the dollar index is expected to bottom around 101.
5, so it is not advisable to overly expect
a follow-up copper price rebound.

Domestically, the national TV and telephone conference on stabilizing the economic market held on Wednesday reflects the central government's firm determination to stabilize growth, and the gradual implementation of the policy has made the market expect follow-up copper demand
.
Approaching June, with the end of the maintenance of domestic smelters, coupled with the inflow of imported copper, the supply is expected to be relatively abundant
.

In terms of the market, spot copper rose by 520 yuan last week, downstream market entry increased, and demand maintained a recovery rhythm in the late epidemic; Inventories around Shanghai are low, tight supply supports holders to maintain a rising water pattern, and the current forward contract is inverted, and short-term high premiums will continue
.
In terms of import profit and loss, the US dollar and RMB depreciated simultaneously, copper prices were strong and weak outside, and the import profit window opened during the week, and now remained within 100 yuan / ton
.

In terms of stocks, London copper stocks continued to decline last week, with a cumulative decrease of 14,900 tons to 156175 tons, a cumulative decline of 8.
71%.

Shanghai copper stocks continued to decline last week, with a cumulative decrease of 12,890 tons to 41,546 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 23.
68%.

To sum up, the current economy is still in a downward trend, the outlook for metal demand is not optimistic, coupled with the lack of bright spots on the domestic demand side, copper prices have insufficient upward momentum, but the inventory of Shanghai and London has fallen, and domestic stimulus policies continue to exert force, copper prices bottom support strengthened, but the rise is weak, only maintain a weak shock rebound pattern
.