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Fitch Solutions Macro Research, a U.
S.
-based credit, macro and industry solutions company owned by Fitch Group, predicts that Japan will add 17 GW of connected solar PV capacity between 2018 and 2020
.
According to its outlook for Japan's solar industry, this addition includes a backlog of projects under the country's FIT (feed-in tariff) program and should go live in December 2020, the deadline for projects to be awarded FIT contracts
.
If realized, the new capacity would increase the country's cumulative installed capacity from 48.
6 GW at the end of 2017 to about 65.
6 GW
at the end of 2020.
However, Fitch's outlook expects the Japanese solar market to shrink significantly over the 2021-2027 period, with only 14 GW of new installations
expected to be deployed.
This slowdown is mainly due to two well-known problems in the Japanese solar market: grid constraints and land availability, but also in the context of the transition from FIT to auction, which will lead to lower-than-expected results
.
"The cautious outlook for the long-term trajectory of the sector is also due to the sharp decline in feed-in tariff subsidies available for residential and company-level solar projects," Fitch analysts said, "At the company level, the tax rate will be reduced from 18 yen/kWh to 850 million yen/kWh by 2022-2024, while household facilities will be reduced from the current 26 yen/kWh to 11 yen/kWh
by 2025.
" ”
Commenting on the results of Japan's second solar auction held in mid-September, Fitch said it was the result of the price gap offered by the government under the mechanism, as well as the price
that attracted project developers to participate in the bidding.
Fitch Solutions Macro Research, a U.
S.
-based credit, macro and industry solutions company owned by Fitch Group, predicts that Japan will add 17 GW of connected solar PV capacity between 2018 and 2020
.
According to its outlook for Japan's solar industry, this addition includes a backlog of projects under the country's FIT (feed-in tariff) program and should go live in December 2020, the deadline for projects to be awarded FIT contracts
.
If realized, the new capacity would increase the country's cumulative installed capacity from 48.
6 GW at the end of 2017 to about 65.
6 GW
at the end of 2020.
However, Fitch's outlook expects the Japanese solar market to shrink significantly over the 2021-2027 period, with only 14 GW of new installations
expected to be deployed.
This slowdown is mainly due to two well-known problems in the Japanese solar market: grid constraints and land availability, but also in the context of the transition from FIT to auction, which will lead to lower-than-expected results
.
"The cautious outlook for the long-term trajectory of the sector is also due to the sharp decline in feed-in tariff subsidies available for residential and company-level solar projects," Fitch analysts said, "At the company level, the tax rate will be reduced from 18 yen/kWh to 850 million yen/kWh by 2022-2024, while household facilities will be reduced from the current 26 yen/kWh to 11 yen/kWh
by 2025.
" ”
Commenting on the results of Japan's second solar auction held in mid-September, Fitch said it was the result of the price gap offered by the government under the mechanism, as well as the price
that attracted project developers to participate in the bidding.
