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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsForeign: In the early morning of November 3, Beijing time, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released a monetary policy statement at 2 pm Eastern Time on Wednesday (2 am Beijing time on Thursday), deciding to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the target range of 0.
25% to 0.
5%, in line with broad market expectations
.
Domestically: China's official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs both picked up in October, with manufacturing PMIs hitting 27-month highs and non-manufacturing hitting 10-month highs, data far exceeding analysts' expectations, indicating a clear recovery in production and demand
.
2.
Analysis of this month's market trend
(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (aluminum): According to cable network monitoring data, this week's aluminum prices after a sharp adjustment, volatility is large, Monday after the high began to pullback, Wednesday the plate fell to the limit, Thursday hit the low point after rebound, the overall market is dominated
by low volatility.
Represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, the price of A00 aluminum ingots at the beginning of the week was 14950 yuan / ton, and the price on Friday was 14230 yuan / ton, down 720 yuan, the overall decline was 4.
82%.
Macro: The sharp drop in crude oil this week and the uncertainty surrounding the US election have sharply heated up risk aversion in the market, and domestic aluminum prices have generally weakened
.
The surge in U.
S.
crude oil inventories and doubts about the ability of oil producers to coordinate production restrictions, oil prices fell for five consecutive trading days, and the uncertain outlook of the presidential election weighed on the stock market, U.
S.
stocks hit the longest consecutive decline in nearly eight years, investors' risk aversion rose sharply, and the market was affected
.
Driven by black and bullish atmosphere of copper and zinc, aluminum prices rebounded, but finally plunged sharply to a weekly low
on Friday afternoon.
On the whole, after the overdraft of the early benefit, aluminum began to fall, capital speculation made the short-term Shanghai aluminum shock intensified, it is expected that spot aluminum short-term is still weak and volatile.
Market: this week's arrival increased, and superimposed on the month-end factors, spot premium fell significantly from 580 yuan / ton on Friday, this week mainly runs between 330-350 yuan / ton, holders of shipments are active, middlemen are cautious and wait-and-see, and downstream is more difficult to accept high prices, and the receiving force is weak
.
Although the arrival of spot goods has increased, railway transportation in Xinjiang has not been solved, there is a large backlog of goods, and the increase in automobile transportation has slightly eased the tight situation of spot inventory, but the overall level is low and tight
.
At present, small-scale automobile transportation and a small amount of imports in Xinjiang have inhibited spot premiums, aluminum prices have also begun to fall comprehensively after overdraft in the early period, capital speculation has intensified short-term Shanghai aluminum shocks, and spot aluminum is expected to remain weak in the short term
.
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