Cable Raw Materials (Copper) Weekly Report (10.17-10.21)

Abroad, recently, with the release of some macroeconomic data in the United States, expectations of the Fed's interest rate hike in December have heated up
.
From the current economic data analysis, although some data is less than expected, but the overall is good, the key to the Fed's interest rate hike is inflation data
.
According to the latest statistics, the US CPI index in September increased by 1.
5% year-on-year, and the core CPI index was 2.
2%, which is obviously improving
.
If the data keeps getting better like this, then the Fed's interest rate hike years ago is a high probability event
.
If the Fed raises interest rates years ago, then the probability of the Fed entering a rate hike cycle in the future is high, which is also the most solid basis for
the strengthening of the dollar index.
The strengthening of the US dollar index has a greater depressing effect on commodity prices, especially copper prices
, which have a strong negative correlation with the US dollar index.

Domestically, the depreciation of the RMB after the National Day has continued, and the RMB has rapidly expanded its decline after falling below the 6.
76 mark, refreshing a new low in more than 6 years, and the onshore RMB has also continued to fall
sharply.
The decline in RMB is not only due to the increase in market expectations for US dollar interest rate hikes, which strengthens the momentum of US dollar rise, thereby pulling down the RMB exchange rate, but also the government's regulation and control of real estate has increased the downward pressure
on the economy.
With the depreciation of the RMB, the pressure on domestic capital outflow increased, and the deficit of bank foreign exchange settlement and sale on behalf of customers returned to a half-year high in September
.
In addition to seasonal factors, this is largely due to investors' expectations that the renminbi will continue to depreciate in the future, which may be detrimental to domestic investment and economic development
.