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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsAbroad, according to the data that has been released recently, the US economy is performing relatively strongly
.
Strong economic data provides a good basis for a rate hike, with Yellen's speech suggesting that a rate hike in December is imperative
.
Hawkish comments helped push the dollar to hold the 100 mark, and copper prices came under pressure
.
Although the impact on copper prices is not yet obvious, it is expected that the market will react
after digesting the matter.
Domestically, it is reported that in order to better promote the healthy development of the real estate market, a number of hot cities around the National Day have introduced regulatory policies, and initially achieved results, supply and demand volume and price have gradually become rational, and the support for metal demand has weakened
.
In November, more than a month has passed the national real estate new policy, more than 20 cities have intensively issued regulatory policies, and the traditional peak season of the property market "Golden Nine" and "Silver Ten" is no longer
.
Second, this week's market trend analysis
Second, this week's market trend analysis(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (copper): this week (November 14-November 18) domestic copper prices followed the futures price fell sharply, some of the previous gains, taking the Yangtze River spot market as an example, according to cable network monitoring data, the average copper price at the beginning of the week was 46360 yuan / ton, and the average copper price on Friday was 43870 yuan / ton, down 2490 yuan / ton, down about 5.
4%.
Macro aspect: On the domestic front, this week's macro data shows that the National Development and Reform Commission has approved infrastructure projects with a total investment of more than 64 billion yuan, and the completion of fixed asset investment continues to be in a slow upward trend, but the domestic industrial added value and the total retail sales of social consumer goods have still not improved significantly, and the news has not brought momentum to copper prices to continue to rise
。 Abroad, U.
S.
price data, housing starts and other data performed well, the speeches of the Boston Fed President and Yellen also pushed the US interest rate hike expectations in December to 96%, and the dollar index broke through the resistance line of the volatility range since March last year, which gradually increased the pressure on copper prices
.
Market: Recently, spot copper prices followed the Shanghai copper shock decline, but the sharp decline in copper prices did not stimulate market trading to improve
.
Due to the current market generally bearish copper price late trend, so downstream manufacturers into the market procurement enthusiasm is still not high, holders are worth starting to reduce spot copper premium shipments
.
Then it still failed to stimulate the market to improve, on the contrary, after the spot copper discount increased, traders said that they could only temporarily turn to the sidelines, waiting for the opportunity
of copper prices to rebound.
Therefore, although the spot copper market this week is flawed, it has entered an embarrassing situation
of supply and demand.
From the supply side, the proportion of imported copper has increased this week, but it is mainly due to domestic traders holding on to the sidelines, in fact, the current imported copper inversion is still very serious
.
On the demand side, due to the gradual emergence of manufacturers' capital problems at the end of the year, it is difficult for market demand to improve significantly
.
Overall, the actual supply of the market is still likely to increase and consumption is difficult to improve, it is expected that copper prices will still have room for decline in the later period, and it is recommended to be cautious in the short term
.
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