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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsDomestically: China's recent intensive economic data package further confirms the economic recovery
.
The manufacturing index hit a two-year high in November, import and export data were significantly better than expected, inflation data also continued to maintain a strong trend, and various data showed that the domestic economic situation was stable, which is conducive to market demand
next year.
Although China's data is beautiful, the RMB still cannot get rid of the trend of decline, and the RMB once fell below the 6.
9 yuan mark against the US dollar
.
After the exchange rate reform, the two-way fluctuation trend of RMB has been fully displayed
.
As China's foreign exchange reserves continue to decline, residents and businesses prefer to hold US dollars, and the RMB may depreciate for a longer time
in the context of the central bank's liquidity control is still loose.
Abroad: U.
S.
durable goods orders rebounded in October, indicating that the U.
S.
economy accelerated in the
fourth quarter.
As an indicator of the growth rate of corporate equipment investment, orders for non-defense capital durable goods, excluding aircraft, increased by 0.
2%
month-on-month.
The U.
S.
trade deficit hit a four-month high in October as overseas sales weakened and U.
S.
companies imported more equipment and consumer goods
.
The deficit in October expanded by 17.
8% from September, the largest increase since March 2015
.
The last Fed meeting of 2016 is approaching, and although the market has a probability of a Fed rate hike of 100% or more in December, the market is expected to trade cautiously
until the results of the meeting are available.
Second, this week's market trend analysis
Second, this week's market trend analysis(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (copper): This week (December 5-December 9), domestic copper prices first rose and then declined, and prices maintained a volatile finishing trend after a slight retreat, and the overall rise was slightly weak
.
Taking the Yangtze River spot market as an example, according to cable network monitoring data, the average copper price at the beginning of the week was 47,010 yuan / ton, and the average copper price on Friday was 46,900 yuan / ton, down 110 yuan / ton, a decline of about
0.
23%.
Macro: Domestically, the RMB was in the range of 6.
86-6.
91, and the central bank's open market had a total net withdrawal of 405 billion yuan for four consecutive days, maintaining a tight balance
of funds.
There is a contradiction between RMB depreciation and tightening capital in the Shanghai copper market, which appears to be tangled
.
Abroad, as expected by the European Central Bank to continue to implement loose monetary policy, the euro fell, the dollar strengthened, and copper prices came under pressure
.
Next week is approaching the last Fed meeting of 2016, and while the probability of a Fed rate hike in December is already 100% or more, markets are expected to trade cautiously
until the results of the meeting are available.
Market: this week's market supply is acceptable, smelters basically do not ship, Guangdong smelters have a small amount of shipments, recent smelter capacity is obviously insufficient, scrap copper low price convenience on electrolytic copper pressure is more serious, traders shipments positively, some traders in order to cash out and significantly reduce wet copper prices to stimulate consumption, demand, downstream manufacturers for the large fluctuation of copper prices still maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude, a small number of bargain bargains on demand procurement, the start of the situation is weak, the operating rate has declined, and the reduction of orders has become the current norm
。
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