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Trade Service
1.
Macroeconomic news
1.
The US Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) came in at -2.
4 in February, the lowest since 2009, and 1.
0 expected, reflecting the weak wage data in
Friday's non-farm payrolls report.
The January data was also revised sharply down by 1.
2 to negative territory
.
Data released by the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Friday showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 242,000 in February, far exceeding market expectations for an increase of 195,000 and the previous value by 151,000; the US unemployment rate was 4.
9% in February versus 4.
9% expected and 4.
9%
in the previous month.
The Labor Department also revised its January nonfarm payrolls upward to an increase of 172,000.
2.
Data from the national consumer price index (CPI) and industrial producer price index (PPI) in February 2016 showed that the CPI increased by 1.
6% month-on-month and 2.
3% year-on-year; PPI decreased 0.
3% sequentially and 4.
9%
y/y.
In February 2016, the total level of consumer prices in the country increased by 2.
3%
year-on-year.
3, 4.
The European Central Bank cut three major interest rates
across the board on Thursday.
Among them, the main refinancing rate was lowered to 0.
0% versus 0.
05% expected, and the overnight loan rate was lowered to 0.
25% versus 0.
3% expected; The overnight deposit rate was cut by 10 basis points to -0.
4%, in line with expectations
.
In addition, the ECB announced the expansion of monthly QE purchases to 80 billion euros and the launch of TLTRO2
.
But given the complexity of the eurozone, the ECB decided not to implement tiered interest rates
.
Second, the analysis of natural rubber market trends
Natural rubber
According to the monitoring data of the cable network, the spot price of domestic natural rubber standard rubber this week showed a shock rise, and the average price of the natural rubber market on Monday remained at about 10440 yuan / ton, and the weekend was raised to 10680 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 1.
88%.
This week, the shipment of tianjiao merchants is more positive, the overall market atmosphere of tianjiao is better, the transaction situation is relatively ideal, and the trading atmosphere is upward compared with last week
.
The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:
First, in the macro aspect, the revised value of the Eurozone's GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter was not adjusted from the preliminary value released last month, at 0.
3%, which was in line with expectations; The year-on-year growth rate was revised upwards from 1.
5% to 1.
6%, slightly better than expected; Domestically, broad money (M2) is expected to grow by about 13% this year, and the balance of social financing scale will increase by about 13%, and the requirements of prudent monetary policy are conducive to maintaining sufficient liquidity in the financial system
.
At present, the price of tianjiao has been supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of tianjiao have risen
slightly.
Second, in terms of the market, the 14-year-old Yunnan state-owned whole milk in Shanghai was about 1090 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton; In 14 years, Hainan state-owned whole milk was about 10,600 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton; In Shandong, the 14-year Yunnan state-owned whole milk was about 10,900 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton; The 15-year quotation of private full latex in Yunnan was about 10,650 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton
.
Third, in terms of inventory, as of the week of March 11, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell to 271,400 tons, down 06,700 tons, or 2.
3%,
from 278,100 tons in mid-February.
Specifically, natural rubber was 229,700 tons, a decrease of 04,500 tons, or 1.
92%,
from mid-February.
The decrease in inventories was mainly due
to lower inventories of synthetic rubber and natural rubber.
4.
In terms of demand, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate this week was 65%, up 1.
20% from last week; The operating rate of semi-steel tires of domestic tire companies was 70%, down 2.
3%
from last week.
Recently, the start of the steel tire market has remained basically stable, while the recent increase in orders for semi-steel tires has increased and some manufacturers have increased their starts
.
Future market forecast: This network analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment
of the inter-urban shock after Shanghai rubber.
Although the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 1605 contract continued to rise strongly at the beginning of this week, it once rose to the limit, but as the futures price rose above the 12,000 yuan / ton line, the short selling pressure increased significantly, and the early bulls took profits
.
Shanghai rubber has therefore successively given back the previous gains, and made up for Monday's upward gap, due to the tightening advantage of the supply side and the strong expectation of downstream recovery, rubber price correction space is expected to be limited, Tianjiao has not seen other obvious positive factors for the time being, the pattern of loose supply is difficult to break
for the time being.
From the perspective of comprehensive factors, Shanghai rubber may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern
in the short term.
3.
Summary of enterprise quotations
| trademark | factory | Price | Change | |
| SCRWF | Xinfei International | 9800 | 0 | Yuan/ton |
| SCRWF | Shanghai Juyi | 10900 | 1000 | Yuan/ton |
| SCRWF | Dragon Oaks International | 10900 | 1000 | Yuan/ton |
| SCRWF | Tianjin Xiangyu | 10900 | 1000 | Yuan/ton |
| SCRWF | Rongrong International | 10900 | 1000 | Yuan/ton |
| SBR1502 | Qilu Petrochemical | 8950 | 0 | Yuan/ton |
| SBR1712 | Qilu Petrochemical | 8100 | 0 | Yuan/ton |
| SBR1500 | Lanzhou Petrochemical | 9000 | 0 | Yuan/ton |
| SBR1712 | Lanzhou Petrochemical | 8100 | 0 | Yuan/ton |
| SBR1502 | Jilin Petrochemical | 8800 | 0 | Yuan/ton |
| SBR1712 | Lanzhou Petrochemical | 8100 | 0 | Yuan/ton |
| BR9000 | Daqing Petrochemical | 8900 | 0 | Yuan/ton |
| BR9000 | Jinzhou Petrochemical | 8800 | 0 | Yuan/ton |
| BR9000 | Dushanzi petrified | 8900 | 0 | Yuan/ton |
| BR9000 | Qilu Petrochemical | 8900 | 0 | Yuan/ton |
| BR9000 | Yanshan Petrochemical | 8700 | 0 | Yuan/ton |
| BR9000 | Baling Petrification | 8700 | 0 | Yuan/ton |
Fourth, the market dynamics of each region
Natural rubber:
The quotation of natural rubber spot market in Shandong was supported
.
Recently, the downstream is moderately replenished, and the transaction is acceptable
.
Today's small number of reference quotations are as follows: 13-year state-owned full latex quotation of 10,500 yuan / ton, 14-year Yunnan state-owned full latex quotation of 11,000 yuan / ton; 15 years Yunnan private whole milk 11200 yuan / ton; 15-year bid 2 quotation 10000-10200 yuan / ton; The reference price of 3L raw rubber in Vietnam is 10400-10500 yuan / ton, the reference quotation without tax is about 9800 yuan / ton, and the Vietnamese 3L composite is 10300 yuan / ton; The quotation of tobacco tablets in Thailand is 11700-11800 yuan / ton, the above price is for reference only, and the actual order is specifically negotiated
.
The quotation of natural rubber in Zhejiang is narrow, Shanghai rubber maintains weak consolidation, and spot prices remain stable, with local narrow adjustments
.
Recently, the price fluctuation of full latex is generally dismal, compared with Vietnam's 3L rubber shipment
.
The reference quotation is as follows: the mainstream quotation of state-owned full latex in 14 years is 10900 yuan / ton self-pickup; Private bid 2 has no advantage in price, no goods in the market, and lack of quotation; Vietnam's 3L rubber small factory beautiful goods 17 tax bulk mainstream quotation 10300-10400 yuan / ton, low-end quotation 10000 yuan / ton (dark color), large factory beautiful goods 17 tax bulk quotation of about 10500 yuan / ton; Thailand's 3# big factory tobacco flakes quotation 11600 yuan / ton, 15 years tobacco flakes quotation slightly higher, the quotation is about
11800-12000 US dollars / ton.
For reference only, real order negotiation
.
Hengshui natural rubber spot market quotation remained stable, the industry reflected that the current factory is greatly affected by environmental protection, most enterprises start sluggish, the demand is general, mainly based on the transaction of standard 1 and standard 2
。 The current quotation is as follows: I heard that 11000-11100 yuan / ton of state-owned full latex in 14 years; The reference quotation of private full latex in 15 years is 11200 yuan / ton, excluding tax 10600-10700 yuan / ton; I heard that the quotation of standard two rubber is 10000-10200 yuan / ton; Vietnam's 3L raw rubber small factory beautiful goods including tax price is 10600-10700 yuan / ton; excluding tax: 10300 yuan / ton; Thailand's 15-year-old large factory tobacco tablets include tax at 11900-12000 yuan / ton, and the national reserve green head tobacco flakes include tax 11000 yuan / ton, the price is for reference only, and the actual order is specifically negotiated
.
The spot quotation of natural rubber in the Yunnan market is mainly
consolidated.
Market merchants mostly accompany the market quotation, the actual single depends on the specific negotiation of the buying order, currently based on the whole milk, 5#, standard two rubber quotation
.
Today's reference quotation is as follows: 15-year private full latex reference price 10600 yuan / ton, 5# reference price 9500-9600 yuan / ton, 15-year state-owned standard II reference price 9400-9500 yuan / ton, Myanmar III quotation 9200 yuan / ton, other varieties of quotation is rare, merchants said that the negotiation is based
on actual orders.
Styrene-butadiene rubber:
The market in Shanghai is adjusted to the shock of styrene-butadiene rubber, the local Qilu, Jihua 1502 quotation is about 10200 yuan / ton, Qilu, Lanhua 1712 quotation is about 9300 yuan / ton, traders mostly hold a wait-and-see mentality, the overall market transaction is general
.
The styrene-butadiene rubber market in Tianjin was adjusted in shock, and the market quotation of Qilu and Jihua 1502 was about 9800 yuan / ton; Qilu and Lanhua 1712 quotations are about 9300 yuan / ton, downstream plant demand is flat, traders mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude, and there is no obvious change in market transactions
.
The market shock adjustment of styrene-butadiene rubber in Hengshui area, the local Qilu and Jihua 1502 quotations are about 10,000 yuan / ton, and the oil-filled 1712 quotations are about
9,400 yuan / ton.
Traders are cautious about the future market, downstream manufacturers demand is light, and the overall transaction has not changed
significantly.
Cis-butadiene rubber:
The cis-butadiene rubber market in Shanghai remained stable, the local Gaoqiao Shunding quotation was about 9300 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Lande Shunding was about 8800 yuan / ton.
The cis-butadiene rubber market in Tianjin rose slightly, the local Yanshan and Daqing shunding quotations were about 8900 yuan / ton, and the Lande shunding quotations were about 8600 yuan / ton, the overall demand of the market was light, and the merchants held a wait-and-see attitude, and the overall transaction was average
.
The market quotation of cis-butadiene rubber in Hengshui area remained stable, and the quotation of Yanshan cis-butadiene rubber was about 9,000 yuan / ton, and the specific transaction was more negotiable
.
Traders mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude, and there is no significant change
in spot demand in the market.
5.
Rubber inventory
| Shanghai Futures Exchange designated delivery warehouse natural rubber inventory weekly report on March 11 | |||||||
| Natural rubber | :ton | ||||||
| region | warehouse | Last week's inventory | Inventory of the week | Inventory increases and decreases | |||
| subtotal | futures | subtotal | futures | subtotal | futures | ||
| Shanghai | Zhong Chu Wu Song | 10940 | 10010 | 10090 | 10040 | -850 | 30 |
| Crystaltonization is light | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| China Reserve Field | 15549 | 13450 | 15530 | 13590 | -19 | 140 | |
| Zhongchu Lingang | 33567 | 27610 | 33334 | 28660 | -233 | 1050 | |
| Shanghai Yuansheng | 15000 | 14860 | 15000 | 14840 | 0 | -20 | |
| Shipping East China Zhang Huabang | 6541 | 4940 | 6541 | 5570 | 0 | 630 | |
| total | 81597 | 70870 | 80495 | 72700 | -1102 | 1830 | |
| Shandong | Orrente | 12840 | 11340 | 13010 | 11300 | 170 | -40 |
| Qingdao 832 | 31015 | 25310 | 31215 | 25310 | 200 | 0 | |
| COSCO Logistics | 48205 | 32850 | 50036 | 33610 | 1831 | 760 | |
| total | 92060 | 69500 | 94261 | 70220 | 2201 | 720 | |
| Yunnan | Yunnan storage and transportation | 18100 | 13740 | 18100 | 13440 | 0 | -300 |
| Hainan | New Cisco Yonggui | 16000 | 14300 | 16000 | 16000 | 0 | 1700 |
| Port and shipping logistics | 17780 | 17780 | 17780 | 17780 | 0 | 0 | |
| total | 33780 | 32080 | 33780 | 33780 | 0 | 1700 | |
| Tianjin | China Reserve South Warehouse | 15663 | 8390 | 15753 | 8390 | 90 | 0 |
| Full logistics | 38755 | 34800 | 38755 | 34800 | 0 | 0 | |
| total | 54418 | 43190 | 54508 | 43190 | 90 | 0 | |
| total | 279955 | 229380 | 281144 | 233330 | 1189 | 3950 | |
| Note: The subtotal is the quantity of goods that meet the delivery quality, and the futures is the number of goods that have been made into warehouse receipts; The available warehouse capacity is the quantity that can be made into a warehouse receipt. |
|||||||
can be made into a warehouse receipt.
Shanghai Futures Exchange designated delivery warehouse natural rubber inventory weekly report on March 11 Shanghai Futures Exchange designated delivery warehouse natural rubber inventory weekly report on March 11 Natural rubber :ton Natural rubber :ton region warehouse Last week's inventory Inventory of the week Inventory increases and decreases region warehouse Last week's inventory Inventory of the week Inventory increases and decreases subtotal futures subtotal futures subtotal futures subtotal futures subtotal futures subtotal futures Shanghai Zhong Chu Wu Song 10940 10010 10090 10040 -850 30 Shanghai Zhong Chu Wu Song 10940 10010 10090 10040 -850 30 Crystaltonization is light 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crystaltonization is light 0 0 0 0 0 0 China Reserve Field 15549 13450 15530 13590 -19 140 China Reserve Field 15549 13450 15530 13590 -19 140 Zhongchu Lingang 33567 27610 33334 28660 -233 1050 Zhongchu Lingang 33567 27610 33334 28660 -233 1050 Shanghai Yuansheng 15000 14860 15000 14840 0 -20 Shanghai Yuansheng 15000 14860 15000 14840 0 -20 Shipping East China Zhang Huabang 6541 4940 6541 5570 0 630 Shipping East China Zhang Huabang 6541 4940 6541 5570 0 630 total 81597 70870 80495 72700 -1102 1830 total 81597 70870 80495 72700 -1102 1830 Shandong Orrente 12840 11340 13010 11300 170 -40 Shandong Orrente 12840 11340 13010 11300 170 -40 Qingdao 832 31015 25310 31215 25310 200 0 Qingdao 832 31015 25310 31215 25310 200 0 COSCO Logistics 48205 32850 50036 33610 1831 760 COSCO Logistics 48205 32850 50036 33610 1831 760 total 92060 69500 94261 70220 2201 720 total 92060 69500 94261 70220 2201 720 Yunnan Yunnan storage and transportation 18100 13740 18100 13440 0 -300 Yunnan Yunnan storage and transportation 18100 13740 18100 13440 0 -300 Hainan New Cisco Yonggui 16000 14300 16000 16000 0 1700 Hainan New Cisco Yonggui 16000 14300 16000 16000 0 1700 Port and shipping logistics 17780 17780 17780 17780 0 0 Port and shipping logistics 17780 17780 17780 17780 0 0 total 33780 32080 33780 33780 0 1700 total 33780 32080 33780 33780 0 1700 Tianjin China Reserve South Warehouse 15663 8390 15753 8390 90 0 Tianjin China Reserve South Warehouse 15663 8390 15753 8390 90 0 Full logistics 38755 34800 38755 34800 0 0 Full logistics 38755 34800 38755 34800 0 0 total 54418 43190 54508 43190 90 0 total 54418 43190 54508 43190 90 0 total 279955 229380 281144 233330 1189 3950 total 279955 229380 281144 233330 1189 3950 Note: The subtotal is the quantity of goods that meet the delivery quality, and the futures is the number of goods that have been made into warehouse receipts; The available warehouse capacity is the quantity that
can be made into a warehouse receipt.
Note: The subtotal is the quantity of goods that meet the delivery quality, and the futures is the number of goods that have been made into warehouse receipts; The available warehouse capacity is the quantity that
can be made into a warehouse receipt.
Sixth, the downstream market demand
1.
According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on the 10th, in the first two months of this year, China's automobile production and sales reached 4.
0691 million and 4.
0869 million units, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 3.
74% and 4.
37%.
。 In terms of types, China's passenger car production and sales in the first two months were 3.
5589 million units and 3.
6133 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.
10% and 5.
11%, respectively, down 5.
81 percentage points and 3.
61 percentage points from the same period last year; Commercial vehicle production and sales were 510,300 units and 473,600 units, down 4.
83% and 0.
96% y/y, down 11.
34 percentage points and 18.
53 percentage points
from the same period last year 。 In terms of passenger cars, the production and sales of sedans in the first two months were 1,755,700 units and 1,778,000 units, down 11.
88% and 12.
46% year-on-year; Production and sales of sports multi-purpose passenger car SUVs were 1,240,500 units and 1,270,800 units, up 53.
07% and 54.
80% y/y.
MPV production and sales of utility passenger cars were 417,700 units and 435,800 units, up 9.
69% and 13.
62%
y/y.
In terms of commercial vehicles, bus production and sales in the first two months were 73,000 units and 70,700 units, down 10.
77% and 12.
70% y/y.
Truck production and sales were 437,200 units and 402,900 units, with production down 3.
76% y/y and sales up 1.
44%
y/y.
2.
According to the "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Early Warning Index Survey" released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, the inventory warning index in February 2016 was 59.
6%, up 3.
0 percentage points
from the previous month.
The inventory warning index is above
the warning line.
From the five sub-indices that constitute the early warning index, the inventory index and the employee index have increased; Total market demand, average daily sales volume, and operating condition index all decreased
to varying degrees.
Market demand in February was significantly lower
than in January.
February after the Spring Festival is the lowest month for car sales of the year, and the number of car buyers has dropped significantly, and after the Spring Festival, the personnel of 4S stores have changed greatly, which has also had a certain impact
on car sales.
According to the survey, some dealers reported that the inventory mix was not reasonable enough, the best-selling models were not sold enough, and the slow-selling models were backlogged, resulting in an increase
in inventory.
7.
Major events in the industry:
1.
Shanghai rubber rebounds strongly to ignite the enthusiasm of the market to do long
Last week, Shanghai rubber rebounded strongly, especially on Friday, mainly as a result of a combination of
factors.
First of all, the seasonal supply reduction factor of tianjiao itself makes the rubber price supportive
.
This was followed by the decision of the governments of Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia to implement a mechanism to restrict rubber exports, cutting rubber exports
by 615,000 tons from March 1 to August 31.
http://material.
cableabc.
com/rubber/20160307017329.
html
cableabc.
com/rubber/20160307017329.
html
2.
China's rubber imports in February fell 32.
6% month-on-month
According to Beijing on March 8, the latest preliminary data on imported rubber released by the General Administration of Customs of China showed that China imported 310,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber in February 2016, down 32.
6%
from 460,000 tons in January.
http://material.
cableabc.
com/rubber/20160308027686.
html
cableabc.
com/rubber/20160308027686.
html
3.
The surrounding market fluctuated sharply, and Shanghai rubber reduced its position and fell
Affected by the reversal of the black market, the Shanghai rubber market reduced its position and fell
.
The 1605 contract closed at 11350 yuan / ton on the same day, down 2.
66% from the previous trading day, reducing its position by 10674 lots; The 1609 contract closed at 11590 yuan / ton, down 2.
36% from the previous trading day, reducing its position by 2336 lots
.
http://material.
cableabc.
com/rubber/20160310021682.
html
cableabc.
com/rubber/20160310021682.
html
4.
Non-ferrous metals make up for the rise Shanghai rubber is strongly rising
The supplementary rise of non-ferrous metals drove the Shanghai rubber market to rise strongly on Friday, and both closed the limit at the end of the day of the main contract 1605 and the far month 1609 contract
.
The 1605 contract reduced its position by 972 lots on the same day, and the 1609 contract increased its position by 14112 lots on the same day, and the trading volume was significantly amplified
.
http://material.
cableabc.
com/rubber/20160307016251.
html
cableabc.
com/rubber/20160307016251.
html
5.
Thailand may implement the return of farmland to 5.
8 million rai of rubber forest land
Recently, the Thai government will start to return farmland unsuitable for farming in May this year
.
It is reported that at present, the total land of the comprehensive agricultural area in the country is 130 million rai (1 rai = 2.
4 mu), of which 42 million rai, about 32%, no longer have the requirements
of farming.
http://material.
cableabc.
com/rubber/20160314018037.
html
cableabc.
com/rubber/20160314018037.
html
