China is expected to surpass the U.S. to become the world's largest oil refiner

On April 16, the "2020 Domestic and International Oil and Gas Industry Development Report", compiled and published by the CNPC Economic and Technical Research Institute (ETRI), organized by dozens of experts and research backbones, was released in Beijing using the "online + offline" synchronization model.
The report believes that the world’s major economies have reached a peak of carbon and have gradually clarified the goals of carbon neutrality, which will deeply trigger structural changes on both sides of the oil and gas supply and demand, and the oil and gas industry is accelerating its transformation and upgrading.
In the next five years, the global oil and gas market will enter a period of change, and natural gas will continue to be the fossil energy with the fastest growth in demand.
In the second half of 2021, the effect of epidemic prevention and control will gradually appear, the economic recovery of the world's major economies will be better than expected, and the fundamentals of the oil and gas market and the operation of the oil and gas industry will emerge from the decline and show a recovery rebound.
Brent oil price is expected to reach 62-67 US dollars per barrel.

The characteristics of "oil stabilization and gas increase" will be more obvious

Jiang Xuefeng, vice president of the China Petroleum Institute of Economics and Technology, pointed out that during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the proportion of oil and gas in primary energy consumption rose from 24.

7% to 27.
6%, and the oil and gas supply and demand fields all showed the characteristics of "oil stabilizing and increasing gas".

During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with the full entry of a new stage of building a modern socialist country and the "3060" dual-carbon goal, my country's oil and gas industry will enter a new period of accelerated transformation and comprehensive promotion of high-quality development.

The characteristics of "oil stabilizing and increasing gas" will be more obvious.

China is expected to surpass the U.

S.

　　1.

World: Intensified competition in the refining industry, gross profit slightly increased in 2021

　　In 2020, the growth rate of world oil refining capacity will slow down significantly compared with the previous year.

The new crown epidemic has severely impacted the global oil refining industry.

　　In 2021, the world's oil refining capacity is expected to continue to grow at a low rate, and the newly added capacity is only about 40 million tons/year, mainly from China and the Middle East.

China is expected to surpass the United States to become the world's largest refiner; the world's refinery crude oil processing capacity and capacity utilization rate It will slowly recover, and the gross profit of refining is expected to be slightly better than that of the previous year, and competition in the world's refining industry will intensify.

　　2.

China: Transformation and upgrading will continue

　　During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, my country's oil refining capacity increased from 790 million tons/year to 890 million tons/year, an increase of 12.

7%.

　　In 2021, the domestic oil refining industry will achieve double breakthroughs.

Among them, the refining capacity exceeded 900 million tons per year, the crude oil processing volume exceeded 700 million tons per year, and the export of refined oil resumed growth.

　　Ethylene capacity growth mainly comes from China and the United States

　　1.
The world: low oil prices affect the structure of ethylene raw materials

　　In 2020, the growth rate of world ethylene capacity will slow down, and most of the new capacity will come from China.
Affected by the new crown epidemic, the demand for ethylene will increase slightly.
The operating rate of ethylene plants in the world will drop significantly.
The cost of ethylene and naphtha-based ethylene has undergone great changes.
North American ethane-to-ethylene construction projects have slowed down.
Although the construction process of ethylene projects in countries along the “Belt and Road” has slowed down, they continue to advance.

　　In 2021, the world's ethylene capacity growth is expected to be higher than that in 2020, and the production capacity will exceed 200 million tons per year.
The production capacity growth will mainly come from the United States and China.
The supply will be more abundant and the demand for ethylene is expected to gradually recover.

　　2.
China: 2021 will be the year with the most production capacity in the history of the ethylene industry

　　During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, ethylene production capacity increased from 22 million tons/year to 35.
18 million tons/year, an increase of 60%.

　　In 2020, China's ethylene production capacity will increase substantially.
Among the newly added production capacity, ethylene production capacity using light hydrocarbons as raw materials will grow rapidly, and the raw material routes will be further diversified.
Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the growth rate of ethylene production has dropped significantly, and the industry's overall efficiency has declined.

　　2021 will be the year with the most production capacity built and put into operation in the history of China's ethylene industry.
Oil-based ethylene and gas-based ethylene go hand in hand.
The total production capacity will exceed the 4,000-ton mark per year.
The output will increase significantly, and the proportion of private enterprises will further expand.
more competitive.

　　Transfer from: China Chemical Industry Information Weekly

　　[Copyright and Disclaimer] All copyrighted works belonging to this website must be authorized when reprinting and indicate the source "China Industrial Economic Information Network".
Offenders of this website will reserve the right to pursue relevant legal responsibilities.
Any reprint of articles and corporate publicity information only represents the author's personal views, and does not represent the views and positions of this website.
For copyright matters, please contact: 010-65363056.

Further reading