China's dependence on crude oil to foreign countries declined for the first time

On February 17, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation (hereinafter referred to as the "Petrochemical Federation") held a press conference
on the economic operation of China's petroleum and chemical industry in 2021 in Beijing.
From the perspective of various operating data, in 2021, the main revenue of the whole industry will increase by 30%, profit will increase by 127%, import and export will increase by 38.
7%, and both revenue and profit will reach a record high
.
During the same period, the total profit and profit margin of the chemical sector also reached a record high, and the performance exceeded expectations
.
In addition, in 2021, China's crude oil dependence on foreign countries will turn from rising to falling
for the first time.

Fan Min, deputy director of the information and marketing department of the Petrochemical Federation, said that the prosperity of the three major sectors of the petroleum and chemical industry rebounded to varying degrees, of which the added value of the oil and gas exploitation industry increased by 2.
2% year-on-year, and the growth rate turned from negative to positive, up 5.
5 percentage points from the previous year; the added value of the oil refining industry increased by 2% year-on-year, up 0.
9 percentage points; and the added value of the chemical industry increased by 7.
5% year-on-year, up 3.
9 percentage points
.

Fu Xiangsheng, vice president of the Petrochemical Federation, pointed out that overall, the operation of the industry in 2021 will show "four increases and three decreases"
.

Data show that crude oil production in 2021 reached 199 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.
4%; Natural gas production was 205.
26 billion cubic meters, an increase of 8.
2% year-on-year, and increased production by more than 10 billion cubic meters
for five consecutive years.
Along with the increase in production, the volume of crude oil processed and the production of its main petrochemical products have also increased
.
Among them, the crude oil processing volume exceeded 700 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.
3%; The output of refined oil products was 357 million tons, an increase of 7.
9%
year-on-year.

At the same time, the imports, consumption and number of enterprises above designated size of major petrochemical products are also increasing
.

The data shows that at the end of 2021, the number of petrochemical enterprises above designated size increased
for the first time after five consecutive years of decreasing.
In 2015, the number of enterprises above designated size in the domestic petrochemical industry was 29,765, and it has continued to decline
since then.
The most obvious is in 2018, which decreased significantly by 1,494 year-on-year, and has decreased to 26,039 in 2020
.
During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the number of
enterprises above designated size decreased by 3,726.

Fu Xiangsheng believes that the increase in the number of enterprises above designated size in the petrochemical industry in 2021 shows that in recent years, China has achieved obvious results in eliminating backward production capacity, shutting down and transferring scattered polluting enterprises, and also shows that enterprises with reasonable layout, high technical content, strong competitiveness and high management level have gained better development space
.

The "opposite of the growth index" is that China's crude oil imports and external dependence have both declined, especially the external dependence of crude oil has declined
for the first time.
At the same time, imports of major synthetic materials are also declining
.

In 2021, China's crude oil imports were 513 million tons, down 5.
3% year-on-year, the first decline; The external dependence of crude oil decreased by 1.
6% to 72% from 73.
6%
in the previous year.

Petrochemical Federation analysis believes that one of the important reasons for the decline in crude oil imports is high oil prices
.
Last year, the average price of Brent was $70.
72 / barrel, up 69.
4%
from the average price of the previous year.
Fu Xiangsheng said that through national reserves, macro-control of crude oil imports according to the trend of oil prices in the international market can not only save foreign exchange for the country, but also curb speculative capital for profit
.

Fu Xiangsheng said that the first time that the dependence of crude oil on foreign countries has changed from rising to falling, which does not mean that the peak of crude oil consumption and imports has appeared, which is just a normal response
of China's consumer market to international crude oil supply, demand and price.
"In addition, the seven-year action plan for increasing oil and gas production implemented by the 'Three Barrels of Oil' and the promotion of the domestic 'dual carbon' goal are also two important reasons for
the decline in crude oil imports.
"

However, in the second half of 2021, especially since the fourth quarter, the petroleum and chemical industry has also faced severe challenges
such as the decline in the growth rate of major economic indicators and increasing downward pressure.

Fu Xiangsheng said that this year, the industry will welcome new opportunities
such as the world economy still showing positive growth, China continuing to lead the world economic growth, and the petrochemical industry market space is still large.
"However, it will also face many challenges
such as uncertainty in the development of the epidemic, increasing downward pressure on the economy, uncertainty in product prices, and supply chain protection to be improved.
"

"The continuity and stability of petrochemical and chemical production processes and the safety and stability of the product chain and supply chain are very important
.
The epidemic has had a serious impact on the global supply chain, and it cannot be simply 'one-size-fits-all' due to the 'dual control of energy consumption' policy, and parks and enterprises have been limited to production and production, and even power cuts, which not only threatens the stability and security of the petrochemical product supply chain, but also directly threatens the production safety
of petrochemical plants, chemical enterprises and parks.
Fu Xiangsheng emphasized
.

Fu Xiangsheng pointed out that ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in 2022 will be the primary responsibility of the domestic petrochemical industry, and policy regulation and control will be increased and more accurate, which will help China's economy continue to operate in a reasonable range
.

Fu Xiangsheng said that at present, China's petroleum and chemical industry is in an important stage from a big country to a strong country, with great growth potential and great
challenges.
It is expected that in 2022, it will be mainly stable, stable and improve quality, and the growth rate of major indicators will slow down, showing a trend
of "low before and high after" throughout the year.