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Overnight, affected by the interest rate hike of central banks, the market's recession fears intensified, market sentiment turned sad again, non-ferrous metals were under pressure above, and the main contract of Shanghai aluminum jumped low to open downward, falling to a six-month low of 19,445 yuan / ton, and then bottomed out, closing down 1.
25%.
Demand expectations still need to be fulfilled, consumption has improved compared with the previous period, the social treasury continues to degrade, and there is some support
below aluminum prices.
On the macro front, the Fed's June FOMC announced a 75 basis point rate hike, raising the target range of the federal funds rate to 1.
5% to 1.
75%, and expects that a further increase in this target range will be appropriate
.
This is the largest in nearly three decades since 1994, and the rate hike is to the high level
before the pandemic in March 2020.
At the same time, the Fed decided that the committee would continue to reduce its holdings of U.
S.
Treasuries, agency bonds, and agency mortgage-backed securities
.
In terms of news, the added value of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry in May increased by 3.
4% year-on-year, and the cumulative added value from January to May increased by 3.
9% year-on-year; The output of ten non-ferrous metals in May was 5.
64 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.
3%, and the cumulative output from January to May was 27.
25 million tons, a cumulative increase of 0.
9% year-on-year, of which the output of electrolytic aluminum in May was 3.
42 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.
1%, and the output of electrolytic aluminum from January to May was 16.
4 million tons, a cumulative increase of 0.
3%
year-on-year.
In terms of inventory, the current social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions has a range of 900,000-980,000 tons in May, and it has been greatly destocked
.
As of the 16th, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions was 808,000 tons, down 102,000 tons from the inventory of 910,000 tons
at the beginning of the month.
The future market predicts that the news of interest rate hikes is bearish for the non-ferrous metals market, and the early news is basically digested, and the price of non-ferrous metals begins to bottom out
after the bearish cash.
Domestic transportation conditions gradually improved, market circulation began to return to normalization, downstream consumer demand has an upward momentum, Foshan, Wuxi, Gongyi three mainstream consumption places spot trading up, downstream replenishment willingness is increasing, it is expected that in the short term aluminum ingot prices are strong and firm operation
.
