Copper market long and short intertwined copper prices short-term dilemma

On the macro front, crude oil prices continued to rise slightly, due to the OPEC meeting unexpectedly reached a production limit agreement, although there are still voices questioning its actual implementation ability, but the agreement can show that $40 as the psychological bottom of oil producers, there is still room
for upward speculation in the short term.
The final GDP of the United States for the second quarter was reported to grow by 1.
4%, higher than the revised value of 1.
1%.

There has not been much important data in the United States recently, and most of the sub-data released are weak, but Yellen still hinted at the possibility of a rate hike in December during her Senate testimony, and the dollar is currently flat in the axis of intra-year volatility, almost losing volatility, or suggesting that the market has fully reflected expectations
before the widely expected event.
China mainly focuses on the manufacturing PMI in September, as the boom in July and August stopped falling and rebounded, and many sub-data show that demand has improved, and the weak rebound momentum of the economy is expected to be maintained
.

In the market, non-ferrous metals maintained their rebound, while copper fell slightly due to the increase in LME inventories by another 10,000 tons
.
At present, LME inventories continue to rise, still reflecting the lagged impact of inventory transfers in the off-season, but also reflecting the rapid increase in supply and the trend
of making up for shortfalls in the first half of the year.
On the last trading day before the holiday, the spot price of Shanghai copper rose, and the pre-holiday stock pushed the premium to expand to 200 yuan, but with the end of the stocking, the price fell slightly, still remaining below
38,000.

On the demand side, orders from large companies have been good since September, and data from automotive, air conditioning, real estate and other industries have increased significantly, which can also confirm strong demand
.
However, subject to the increase in supply and the overall weak expectation of the economy, the downstream remains ready-to-use, and the interest in buying in the forward is not strong, and the Shanghai copper position continues to decline, but this also shows that the current price is very solid, and the spot premium also has a strong support
for the price.
Overall, October consumption is still in the peak season, and prices are expected to remain high, but towards the end of the year, the bullish atmosphere will weaken
significantly.

Overall, the industry is still optimistic about the copper market, but they are worried that copper prices will not continue their rally after the holiday, so they are cautious
in purchasing.
At present, most copper manufacturers complete the pre-holiday material preparation operation, and do not reserve too much raw material inventory, and the light warehouse is mainly
for the holiday.
It is reported that in the case of tight funds at the end of the quarter and a shortage of recycled copper supplies, some buyers can only pay after the holiday, so most of the holders choose to hold the goods for the holiday, and the transaction volume is therefore limited
.